Welcome to one of the most essential skills in price action trading: identifying key levels. These are specific price points on a chart where the market tends to react, either by reversing, consolidating, or breaking out. For beginners, mastering key levels means you can make smarter trading decisions with just a few simple lines on your chart. In this guide, we’ll break down what key levels are, how to identify them, and how to use them with recent examples from Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Let’s dive in!
4 Types of Key Levels
Before we start, let’s understand the four types of key levels you’ll encounter:
Technical Key Levels: These are based purely on technical analysis (TA) and price action—your bread and butter as a trader.
Weekly Levels: These are tied to weekly market sessions, specifically Monday highs, Monday lows, Friday highs, and Friday lows, reflecting the opening and closing of traditional stock markets.
Psychological Levels: These are round numbers that retail traders focus on, like $100,000 for BTC or $4,000 for ETH. They’re popular because they’re easy to spot and often trigger buying or selling.
Event-Based Levels: These are tied to major market events, like Federal Reserve announcements or crypto-specific news (e.g., ETF approvals). They’re less common but can influence price action.
For beginners, we’ll focus on technical key levels and weekly session key levels in this article, as they’re the most reliable and practical for everyday trading. We’ll also use recent BTC and ETH examples to show how these levels work in real markets.
Identifying Technical Key Levels
Technical key levels are price points where the market has shown significant reactions—think strong bounces, rejections, or breakouts. To find them, you’ll create ranges on your chart, which consist of three main components: range low, range high, and mid-range. Here’s how to spot them:
Range Low: This is a swing low where the price bounces strongly after a dump. It acts as support.
Range High: This is a level where the price faces resistance, often rejecting or breaking out after a rally.
Mid-Range: Defining a mid-range is not necessarily the halfway point between the range low and range high, but rather a “loose” S/R level where price often finds reactions. Price action is almost always volatile around this key level and requires careful analysis.
Let’s walk through a step-by-step process using a recent BTC example. I will also be referring to specific dates in the images below. But since I do not want to clutter the chart, you can open your TradingView to refer to those dates if you want to follow along without any confusion!
From February to May 2025, BTC was trading in a range between $78,210.5 (range low) and $95,058.7 (range high). Now I know what you’re thinking: price has dumped to as low as $74,456.2 and pumped to as high as $97,868 (marked by the yellow semi circles), but how are those price points not considered as range low and range high? These are called “deviations” and we will explain this in the next article (you don’t need to know this yet as they are for actual trade executions, whereas identifying key levels is generally the strategy part).
Range Low ($78,210.5): From February 24 to February 28, BTC dumped from $96,536.3 to $78,210.5 with almost no sustaining buying pressure. But from February 28 to March 2, BTC bounced sharply from $78,210.5 to $95,058.7. This strong bounce confirms $78,210.5 as the range low, acting as support.
Range High ($95,078.7): Shortly after BTC rallied to $95,078.7, price failed to go any higher and rejected strongly the following days. What makes this an even stronger range high is the fact that price nearly retested the $96,536.3 price point on February 24 which triggered the sharp dump in the first place.
Mid-Range ($87,178): The middle of this range, around $87,178, saw choppy price action. It primarily acted as a “mini resistance” from March 7 to April 20 where price rejects every time it retested $87,178. But on April 21, the daily candle closed above the mid-range which showed buying strength, and the following day BTC pumped to as high as $94,000 after retesting the mid-range on market open. From there on, the mid-range acts as a support if price reverses from the range high. This is also known as a higher time frame (HTF) support/resistance (S/R) flip region, as it’s significant on both 4-hour and daily charts.
The Tricky Thing about Mid-Range
Mid-ranges can change as price action develops over time. Look at the chart below and you will see that there was another mid-range at $85,023.4 (marked by the yellow dotted line). Price found its way there after the rejection off of range high and had another strong bounce to $92,781.6 before reversing to the downside again and retesting the range low.
Figure 2. BTCUSDT.P on Bybit (1D Timeframe)
The yellow dotted line was the S/R region before April 21. But after the breakout on April 21 and more importantly the strong continuation on April 22, we now see the bigger picture – there is an imbalance of liquidity created by the buyers on April 21 and 22. At some point in the future, it is likely those areas will get filled which overlaps with the current mid-range (white dotted lines).
Anyways, the most important principle you have to remember is the more reactions the key level have seen, the more valid they are as a key level, and this is especially applicable to mid-ranges. The current mid-range of BTC as shown above still saw multiple rejections same as the previous mid-range.
What Happens If Price Breaks Out of Range?
Figure 3. ETHUSDT.P on Bybit (3D Timeframe)
From January 22, 2024 to March 3, 2025, ETH was trading in a range between $2,167.17 and $4096.21. For the longest time, the range low held strongly as an HTF support – price had bounced sharply from the range low 3 times. But on March 9, 2025, price has completely broken below the range low and failed to reclaim it the following week. This means the yellow-lined ranges are no longer in play.
In such situations, we will need to look further back to identify previous pivot points and establish our new key levels.
Figure 4. ETHUSDT.P on Bybit (1W Timeframe)
Going all the way back to January 2022, we have marked out previous pivot points and used those areas as our new key levels for ETH.
New Range Low ($877.7): Price dumped from $3,581 to $877.7 and then strong bounce from there to $2,029.4. Remember, the first swing low often serves as the range low.
New Range High ($3,581): Marked from the initial dump at $3,581 in April 2022. You can also use the previous range high at $4,096.21 (figure 4) as the current range high – there’s nothing wrong with that! However, if you look closely, you will notice the price action above $3,581 are “swing failure patterns” which you will learn in the next article along with “deviations”.
New Mid-Range ($2,155): Notice how the previous range low (figure 3) coincides with our new mid-range. Yes! More often than not, new mid-ranges come from previous range lows (if bearish) and previous range highs (if bullish).This is because it is in the nature of mid-ranges to play the critical role of S/R flip regions. Look closely and you will see that before January 2024, $2,155 was a strong resistance for ETH until it flipped support from there on until the collapse on March 9, 2025.
Now let’s bring up both the yellow and white ranges and you will see the full picture.
Figure 5. ETHUSDT.P on Bybit (1W Timeframe)
So in terms of our current play for ETH, until the current mid-range at $2,155 is reclaimed, there is a possibility that the range low, though not guaranteed, will be retested.
Identifying Weekly Session Key Levels
Weekly levels are based on significant price points from the start and end of the trading week—specifically Monday highs, Monday lows, Friday highs, and Friday lows. These levels reflect the opening and closing dynamics of traditional markets and are often respected in crypto trading as well. They’re excellent for short-term trades, helping you set precise entry points, stop-losses, and take-profit targets. Plus, they can act as liquidity zones where market makers might target stop-losses, so you’ll need to watch for potential traps.
Let’s look at a real-world example using Bitcoin (BTC) on a 4-hour chart from early May 2025. The chart marks key weekly levels from the previous week and the start of the current week, giving us a clear framework to work with.
Figure 6. BTCUSDT.P on Bybit (4H Timeframe)
Previous Friday High ($97,868.0): This was the highest price on the last trading day of the previous week (May 2). It acts as a resistance level.
Previous Friday Low ($96,306.9): The lowest price on that Friday, serving as a support level.
Monday High ($95,149.0): The highest price on Monday, May 5, 2025, acting as a potential resistance or target.
Monday Low ($93,460.2): The lowest price on Monday, serving as a key support level.
Here’s how these levels played out and how you can use them in your trading:
Friday Levels as a Range: The Previous Friday High ($97,868.0) and Low ($96,306.9) form a range that price often respects. On May 2, the price reached $97,868.0 but rejected sharply, dropping to $95,500.0 by May 3. This rejection confirms the Friday High as a strong resistance. The price then consolidated near the Friday Low ($96,306.9) on May 4, showing that this level acted as support during the decline.
Monday Levels as Support/Resistance: On Monday, May 5, the price dropped to the Monday Low ($93,460.2) early in the session, marking a significant support level. It then bounced sharply, rallying to the Monday High ($95,149.0) later that day. The Monday Low held as support when the price retested it on May 6, bouncing to $94,500.0. Meanwhile, the Monday High ($95,149.0) acted as resistance on May 7, where the price wicked above but rejected back down to $94,300.0.
Trading Application: Let’s say you’re looking to trade on May 6 after the price bounces from the Monday Low ($93,460.2). You could enter a long position at $93,600.0, targeting the Monday High ($95,149.0) or even the Previous Friday Low ($96,306.9) for a higher reward. Place your stop-loss just below the Monday Low, around $93,300.0, to protect against a breakdown. This setup gives you a high reward-to-risk (RR) ratio: the distance to $96,306.9 (2,706.9 points) is much larger than your risk (300 points), yielding a 9:1 RR.
Liquidity Traps: Notice the wick below the Monday Low ($93,460.2) on May 5, dropping briefly before bouncing. This is a classic liquidity grab—market makers likely pushed the price below to hit stop-losses before reversing. Similarly, the rejection at the Previous Friday High ($97,868.0) on May 2 trapped breakout buyers. Be cautious around these levels, as wicks often signal traps.
How to Use Weekly Levels in Practice?
If the price holds above the Monday Low ($93,460.2), look for longs targeting the Monday High ($95,149.0) or Previous Friday Low ($96,306.9). If it breaks below, consider shorts targeting the next support, like $92,500.0 (a recent swing low). For stop-losses, place them just outside the weekly levels—below the Monday Low for longs, or above the Friday High for shorts—to avoid being caught in liquidity grabs.
Tips for Weekly Levels
Mark the Levels: Use UTC timezone to identify Monday and Friday key levels. On the chart, draw lines at the highs and lows of those candles. For example, the Monday High ($95,149.0) and Low ($93,460.2) on May 5 are clear markers for the week.
Watch for Reactions: Look for rejections, bounces, or breakouts at these levels. The rejection at $97,868.0 (Previous Friday High) and the bounce from $93,460.2 (Monday Low) show how price respects these zones.
Combine with Other Levels: Weekly levels work best when paired with technical levels (like mid-ranges or HTF S/R flips). For instance, if the Monday Low aligns with a mid-range, it’s an even stronger support.
Ever since ETFs for BTC and ETH have been approved, large institutional players have become involved with trading BTC and ETH. This makes weekly levels a powerful tool for short-term trades. They give you clear targets and stop-loss zones, but always be mindful of liquidity traps, as seen with the wicks around these levels.
Conclusion
The most important principle to take away from identifying key levels in price action trading is that the more reactions a key level has seen, the more valid and reliable it becomes. Whether it’s a range low, range high, mid-range, or weekly level, the significance of a price point grows with each bounce, rejection, or breakout it experiences, as these reactions reflect the market’s memory and the involvement of both retail and institutional players.
Key levels give you clarity by giving structure to the market’s historical data. But remember, this is just the planning part. Even if you have mastered this part at identifying key levels, the actual trade executions can be very different. We will cover this in the next article.
Chinese New Year (Lunar New Year) has a strong influence on cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin prices decreasing in the months leading up to the New Year. This article examines the trend and the possible reasons why it happens. Chinese New Year is celebrated on a different day each year as it is based on the Lunar Calendar.
This year, Chinese New Year will begin on 10 February and end on 13 February. During this time many Chinese Over-the-Counter (OTC) services will be closed – leading to high crypto volatility.
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*Data based on Bitcoin Prices on CoinGecko. Pre-CNY Highs taken as average candle price up to 7 days before the New Year.
This period is a public holiday in China, as many employees make the annual trip back to their hometowns to celebrate with their families. With a population of 1.386 billion, this represents the largest short-term migration in the world. During this time, I also came across some fascinating information about the best Plinko gambling sites, which offer unique and engaging gaming experiences for enthusiasts. All factories in China close during this period, with operations frozen for up to 2 weeks as logistics companies and suppliers slowly open up. Chinese New Year is also celebrated in other Asian countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Korea (Korean New Year). China will also be rolling out a feature allowing people to send red packets containing its digital currency eCNY/DCEP. However, it’s important to note that during this time cryptocurrency exchanges will still operate and facilitate trading around the clock.
Chinese New Year Dump in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023?
Bitcoin prices would almost always drop in the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year.
For example, in 2019, Bitcoin prices dropped steadily from $3,491 right before the Chinese New Year to lows of $3,397 during the holiday.
In 2020, prices fell below the USD$8.3k resistance before Chinese New Year. There was a recovery back to USD$8.5k on the first day of the holidays. However, history cannot help but repeat itself, and within the same day plummeted back below USD$8.3k. Prices then remained stagnant and only made a marked recovery on the last day of the holidays.
In 2021, the tides seemed to have turned with a gradual increase from $32k to $39k in the first week of February, and a huge 2-day rally up to $48k in the few days leading up to the festival. However, during Chinese New Year, prices still began retracing to $46.2k. Fortunately, this did not wipe out the pre-Chinese New Year rally.
2021 Chinese New Year Bitcoin prices (Source: CoinGecko)
In 2022, prices took a sharp nosedive to sub USD$37 levels just before the holidays. Bitcoin prices then rose sharply towards a peak of over USD$39k midway through the Chinese New Year holidays. However, this euphoria was short-lived, and prices took a steep tumble to USD$36.5k on the last day of the Chinese New Year holidays. Essentially undoing the initial price rally a few days prior.
In 2023, prices pumped 1 day before the new year, ringing in a high of US$23,282.40 on the 1st day of Chinese New Year. Prices fluctuated between the US$22,500 and US$23,000 range during the duration of the holidays. However, ultimately closing at US$22,437.68.
Why do Bitcoin prices dump during Chinese New Year?
Decrease in Trading Volume?
Data compiled by CoinDesk Research shows the trading volumes on Binance, Huobi, and OKEx –the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges catering to Chinese customers – were down during the Chinese New Year period. A decrease in trading volume can also be seen during October each year when Golden Week (a 1-week celebration for National Day) in China takes place.
When large numbers of highly leveraged traders all bet on Bitcoin prices moving one way it creates an opportunity for other large investors (whales) to move prices in the other direction. Doing so triggers a cascade of liquidations, sending Bitcoin’s price into free fall and creating huge paper losses for leveraged long traders. The whales are then free to “buy the dip” at the expense of “rekt” traders.
Market Makers on Holiday
It is no secret that market makers and trading bots operate in the Cryptocurrency market – in fact, they are responsible for a portion of the market volume. Market makers located in China and other Asian countries will shut down operations for 3-5 days due to public holidays. Even though market making can be automated by trading bots and algorithms, it still requires humans to watch over the daily operation to make sure the is no malfunction.
During the Chinese New Year, market-making operations will be limited in capacity. This leads to more volatile and less liquid markets.
Cashing out for the New Year
One of the possible reasons for the dip in Bitcoin prices is that people are “Cashing out” for the holidays. This is especially true in China because, during the festival, lucky packets packed with cash are traditionally given out to children and the elderly. These “red packets” are meant to symbolise luck and prosperity and is the only time when giving cash is not taboo in China.
Tradition dictates that married couples should give out red packets to young unmarried children, elderly and service personnel. Company Executives and managers should also give money to their subordinates – with some packets being filled to as much as the employee’s monthly wage.
Due to the huge amount of cash money required, some suspect that this tradition is responsible for the increase in Bitcoin Sell orders before Chinese New Year.
Chinese OTC Volume Drops
Bitcoin is traded in China via Over the Counter (OTC) desks. These OTC desks match orders from buyers and sellers and can offer escrow services. Top desks include Binance OTC and Huobi OTC.
Chinese New Year 2024 Bitcoin price predictions?
This year, Chinese analysts are already looking into the future and are optimistic for Bitcoin prices in the month after the Chinese New Year. They note that Bitcoin prices have generally gone up in the month after Chinese New Year. For example, in 2023, Bitcoin prices went up by 11.15% in the month after the new year, 13.9% increase in 2022, and 30.18%(!!) increase in 2021.
Prices have already been on the rise since 23rd January 2024 where prices were a at a low of US$38,678.18. Prices have been skyrocketing since 7th February 2024, and have crossed the US$46,000 on 9th February 2024! This was already predicted by some analysts on Weibo, saying that prices will not dip, and to welcome the bull market during Chinese New Year.
Crypto analysts have found that Bitcoin prices would almost always drop in the weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year. Hence in the weeks before and during the “Chinese New Year Dump”, traders expect huge volatility in crypto prices.
Why is there a Chinese New Year Bitcoin dump?
Chinese New Year marks the longest extended holiday in China. This period marks the world’s largest short-term migration as people return to their hometowns to visit family. People also cash out to send money back to their families and gift children “red packets”. Therefore, crypto prices dump during Chinese New Year as there is lower trading volume when everyone has “cashed out” their crypto or is busy celebrating.
When is Chinese New Year in 2024?
This year, Chinese New Year will begin on 10 February and end on 13 February.
Our #1 priority is to serve our clients and preserve their assets. Therefore, in consultation with our professional financial advisors and counsel, we have taken the difficult decision to temporarily suspend redemptions and new loan originations in the lending business.
Genesis stated that the withdrawal requests have exceeded its current liquidity, which raised concerns about the firm going insolvent. Because Genesis is directly affiliated with some of the largest crypto institutions, its fall could start another domino effect that is even more devastating than the FTX contagion.
In case you are out of the loop, we have covered the entire timeline of the FTX contagion in chronological order listed down below:
Genesis was the biggest creditor to 3AC, lending $2.4 billion. After 3AC went bankrupt, Genesis filed a $1.2 billion claim against them. When 3AC failed to provide the required collateral, the parent company of Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), stepped in and assumed the $1.2 billion claim, leaving Genesis with no outstanding liabilities to 3AC.
By Q3 2022, their market activity drastically fell, with loan originations falling from $50 billion in Q4 2021 to a mere $8.4 billion. Despite the situation, institutional investors still believe they were crypto’s safest counter-party.
Gemini’s Exposure to Genesis Trading
Gemini, one of the top crypto exchanges regulated in the U.S., announced that there would be withdrawal delays with its Earn product, in which Genesis is a lending partner. If you do not know how Genesis ties into Gemini Earn, here’s how it basically works:
After the lenders give their crypto to Gemini, it will be given to Genesis for them to lend out to a fund. The borrowing party will pay fees for this, which will be shared between Gemini and the lenders. The problem now is that Genesis is having liquidity issues, thus they are unable to give Gemini back their crypto. This means that lenders on Gemini Earn cannot get their crypto back.
Although Gemini assures this does not impact any other products and services, Gemini customers are rushing to get their funds out fearing the exchange is next to go down as the FTX contagion spreads. Over the past 24 hours at the time of writing, Gemini has seen $570 million in withdrawals and ETH withdrawals reached an all-time high on the exchange.
Genesis Trading’s Impact on the Crypto Market
It is not just Gemini but also many other CeFi platforms and major hedge funds use Genesis for their yield product. Moreover, many crypto whales opt to give their funds directly to Genesis to earn yields as well as custodial services. If Genesis is unable to give them back their crypto, many lenders worldwide could potentially lose their asset.
Genesis is also a sister company of Grayscale, the world’s largest Bitcoin fund (GBTC) and one of the largest Bitcoin holders worth $11 billion at the time of writing. If Grayscale is affected by this, there is a possibility that Grayscale will dissolve GBTC to pay back lenders. This impact of this could be huge.
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Today, @AutismCapital said Genesis may have solvency issues and there is a possibility that Grayscale will dissolve GBTC.@GenesisTrading is indeed facing a liquidity crisis due to FTX and 3AC, but @Grayscale said that the normal operation of GBTC will not be affected. pic.twitter.com/Fpdw3Es6SK
However, Grayscale assured users that Genesis is not a counterparty or service provider for any Grayscale product, which means they will not be affected by Genesis suspending withdrawals. But in light of recent situations where FTX and Alameda claimed that they are two independent entities, sceptics are demanding a full audit to prove customer funds are safe.
Genesis Trading Lays Off 30% of Workforce
On 5th January 2023, Genesis Trading announced a large-scale layoff in order to reduce cost. According to sources close to the matter quoted by Coindesk, 30% of its workforce were cut, which especially affected the sales and business development departments. In addition to Genesis previously slashing 20% of its workforce in August, the company now has around 145 employees.
The layoff follows shortly after Genesis Interim CEO Derar Islim sent a letter to clients on January 4, addressing the fact that the firm needs more time to sort out its financial issues. However, time is not something Genesis can afford as it faces increasing pressure from creditors.
Genesis currently owes $900 million to Gemini, and is due to come up with a solution by 8th January 2023. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss believes that DCG is to blame and should be held responsible for its subsidiary company’s situation. In an open letter to DCG CEO Barry Silbert, Winklevoss accused him of “bad faith stall tactics” and claimed that a $1.675 billion loan from Genesis to DCG is the reason why Genesis is facing liquidity issues.
Genesis Trading Considers Bankruptcy
According to Wall Street Journal, Genesis hired investment bank Moelis & Company to review Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. A Genesis spokesperson explained that it is to “preserve customer assets and drive the business forward.”
As of 19th January 2023, Genesis is laying the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing, according to Bloomberg. Reports indicated that Genesis is in confidential negotiations with various creditor groups in an attempt to raise cash. However, if Genesis fails to raise capital, it is highly likely they will file for bankruptcy.
Digital Currency Group (DCG) Under Severe Pressure Amid Genesis Crisis
On 17th January 2023, DCG halted dividend payments to preserve cash. According to a letter to DCG shareholders reported by Bloomberg, DCG is focusing on strengthening their balance sheet by reducing operating expenses and preserving liquidity. As the parent company of Genesis, this move is most likely the result of the financial crisis Genesis is facing.
Moreover, CoinDesk, whose parent company is DCG, is hiring advisors at investment bank Lazard to explore options for a potential sale, including a partial or full sale of the company. According to Wall Street Journal, CoinDesk has actually been privately seeking a deal for months, and has received numerous offers. Whether this is related to the Genesis and DCG crisis, no parties have responded to requests for comment.
CONFIRMED: Genesis Trading Filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection
According to latest news by CNBC, Genesis Trading filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Thursday night in Manhattan federal court. Over 100,000 creditors were listed in the company’s bankruptcy filing, with aggregate liabilities ranging from a whopping $1.2 billion to $11 billion.
In its filing, Genesis stated that it anticipates that after the restructuring process, there will be funds available to pay off unsecured creditors – a group that can be completely eliminated in bankruptcy cases if the circumstances are particularly dire. They also noted the bankruptcy only affects its lending business, and that its derivatives and spot trading business will continue unhindered.
It has been an explosive week for the crypto market, as most cryptos see double-digit gains for the first time since the FTX contagion started in November 2022. This rally was led by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which surpassed the $21,000 and $1,590 mark respectively. It is important to understand what factors are causing these uptrends, so that we, as investors, can recognize and capitalize on these patterns.
Why is Bitcoin (BTC) Pumping in January 2023?
Over the past week, Bitcoin has seen large numbers of purchases with robust trading volume. According to Glassnode, the exchange outflow volume of BTC has hit an early year-to-date high, with nearly $300 million worth of withdrawn BTC moving into crypto wallets. Moreover, most of these withdrawals were made in large installments ranging from $1 million to $10 million of BTC. This is corroborated by on-chain aggregator Santiment, where Bitcoin whales have been loading up their wallets with a lot of BTC, suggesting institutional action.
📈 A definitive explanation on why #crypto prices have bounced:
Across the broader crypto market, more than $1.3 billion of crypto assets in short positions were liquidated over the past 8 days, according to data sourced from Coinglass. Additionally, more than 200,000 traders were liquidated, with the most significant liquidation being a $6.84 million short position against Bitcoin, contributing to the surging price movement in the crypto market.
Apart from market activities within the space, there are other macroeconomic conditions that contribute to Bitcoin’s pump.
Inflation Slowing Down According to U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The price surges in the crypto market also reflects the market’s expectations that inflation is cooling ahead of the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Bitcoin began the week trading at $17,207 and has since seen an upward trajectory, with the CPI report meeting market expectations indicating that inflation in the U.S. economy is slowing. Other equities markets have also responded positively as a result.
Investors are now anticipating comments from the Federal Reserve which should hint at future policy, including the size of interest rate hikes. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held between January 31 and February 1. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the committee is currently expected to yield a hike of 25 basis points istead of the previous 50 basis points.
Now, the prevailing narrative is that U.S. inflation has peaked in 2022, which means softer rate hikes going forward. This stimulates all economic activities including in speculative markets, but with the crypto industry, any surprises could spark additional volatility.
Bitcoin Halving Event in 2024
Another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s pump this month is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024, in which Bitcoin rewards to miners are cut in half. This event occurs after every 210,000 blocks are created, which is roughly every four years. Around next year, miner’s payout will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Historically, halving events have been seen as a positive sign for Bitcoin’s price, as it helps to contract the supply of BTC. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin has a fixed supply, and the halving event directly relates to Bitcoin’s deflationary tendency, driving its price up as a result of supply and demand mechanisms. According to Coindesk, we can see from Bitcoin’s halving history, the events have always been able to establish long-term bullish drivers for Bitcoin’s price.
Correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price movement is its relationship with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The crypto market generally correlates negatively to the DXY due to the purchasing power of fiat currencies. When the DXY declines, investor sentiment for riskier assets such as crypto tends to increase. This year, the DXY dropped to seven-month lows, momentum has slowed as it is beginning to retract. Typically when this happens, it is followed by Bitcoin price moving in the opposite direction.
The concept of the “Flippening” has been increasingly gaining traction in the crypto space. It refers to the hypothetical moment when Ethereum (ETH) surpasses Bitcoin (BTC) as the most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization. The Flippening is important because it would signify a major shift in the overall direction of the crypto landscape, signalling a change in investor sentiment and adoption patterns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lQ8bz9QRBo
While the Flippening is not set in stone, there are compelling data that indicate it is coming, and sooner than you think… Here’s why:
The Case for Bitcoin
Being the world’s first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has maintained its throne on the crypto market since its genesis block in 2009. It is often considered as the safest digital store of value by investors, with its limited supply structure similar to the scarcity of gold, hence its nickname “digital gold.” As such, Bitcoin is usually the primary choice of cryptocurrency for financial institutions looking to get involved. As far as mainstream adoption goes, Bitcoin has led the way so far.
However, Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus model is highly energy-intensive, sparking criticisms of the network’s impact on the environment. Additionally, the usage of Bitcoin is only limited to exchanging and storing value. This is where Ethereum has much more to offer.
The Case for Ethereum
As the second most valuable cryptocurrency, Ethereum is designed to be used as the foundation of a decentralized, blockchain-based internet — an idea that is become known as Web3. Apart from exchanging and storing value, Ethereum introduced smart contract functionalities that allows developers to do all kinds of innovative and creative things on the network. This brought about a proliferation of financial products that have enabled a much broader range of investors.
Ethereum earned its nickname “digital oil” because it is a utility-based asset like oil, fuel or gas, and its value is largely dictated by supply and demand mechanisms. Similar to how the world’s global supply chain is fueled by crude oil, Ethereum lays at the heart of the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) space as well as GameFi and Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market. And as the Web3 landscape progresses, demand will increase as more and more people are recognizing the potential of a decentralized internet. It is only a matter of time when Web2 evolves to Web3, and Ethereum is at the centre of that.
Do “Ethereum Killers” Hinder the Flippening?
It is worth noting that Ethereum faces competition from other prominent layer-1 blockchains such as Aptos, Cardano, Solana, BNB Chain, Polkadot, and Avalanche. There is a trending “Ethereum Killer” narrative in which user adoption will be distributed amongst these blockchains instead of focusing on Ethereum only. However, most of these blockchains in fact depend on Ethereum, as one way or another they are associated with the network’s smart contract. As shown in the image below by Cryptowatch, all of the top layer-1 blockchains are closely correlated with Ethereum’s price action.
Comparing Market Share between Bitcoin and Ethereum
As of 11th January 2023, Ethereum’s market share increased by 3% among global crypto assets, signalling its dominance on the rise. According to Coinmarketcap, Ethereum’s market dominance is at 19%, valued at around $856 billion. On another note, Coingecko’s metrics were slightly different, indicating Ethereum’s dominance at 18.3%. But both aggregation websites show that Bitcoin’s market dominance is decreasing, from 40% to 38%.
It is unclear whether this trend will continue, but according to data sourced from Blockchain Center, the Flippening has been on an uptrend since July 2021. And we are nearly halfway for it to happen. It is also worth noting that Ethereum came closest to the Flippening in 2017, when Bitcoin’s market dominance’s dropped by 40.6% and Ethereum took over 32% of the market amidst the situation.
In reference to the data provided by Blockchain Center, there are also other metrics apart from market cap that determines the Flippening. As of now, Bitcoin is still by far superior in trading volume, which is a crucial metric for adoption usage. However, Ethereum has Bitcoin beat in active addresses, transaction count and volume, and total USD transaction fees.
Outperformance of Ethereum will be primarily driven by the strength of its post-Merge fundamentals. The upcoming Shanghai Upgrade will significantly reduce the risk and opportunity cost of staking ETH, which is likely to attract participation from more crypto users.
Key Takeaway
Despite Ethereum’s increasing adoption and market dominance, Bitcoin still reigns supreme in the crypto space. In fact, Bitcoin saw significant adoption in 2021-2022 from retail and institutional investors, public companies, and even countries. As of now, El Savador and the Central African Republic (CAR) have adopted Bitcoin as a legal currency. This is a monumental step towards mainstream adoption.
But that is not to say the Flippening will never happen — it is certainly a possibility. After all, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have different visions. Bitcoin aims to become the global reserve currency, whereas Ethereum aims to become the infrastructure of a global digital economy. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) applies to both assets, but it all comes down to supply and demand mechanisms. If demand in digital money is higher, then Bitcoin dominates. But if demand in utility-based asset in building out a decentralized ecosystem is higher, then Ethereum is generally favored.
The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes revealed the central bank’s plans to continue raising the federal funds rate to control rising inflation. This could potentially impact the crypto market as economic activity is further tightened, signalling consumers and investors to save money and mitigate risk. Shortly after the news, the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum had dropped momentarily before bouncing back to the $16800 and $1250 range respectively.
Key Takeaways:
Feds opted to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, putting the target range for federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%.
The new restrictive policy in place will fight inflation, but it also tightens economic activity including investments in the crypto market.
The price of Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped 1% after the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes were released.
The Fed’s minutes noted the collapse of digital asset exchange FTX, but said it didn’t have a serious effect on the wider financial system.
Fed Signals Hawkish Interest Hikes in 2023
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Federal Reserve officials concluded its December 13-14 meeting, publishing new projections for expected inflation in 2023 which is higher than previously anticipated. Against the macro backdrop, Fed officials agreed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, putting the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%.
Higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, which in turn affects consumer spending and investments in speculative markets including the stock market and crypto market. The news of the Fed’s plans to continue raising interest rates has caused investors to be cautious, as they are wary of its potential impact on the crypto market. Occasions such as this would prompt traders and investors to sell U.S. equities as well as Bitcoin and other digital assets to mitigate risk.
This caused the price of Bitcoin to dip nearly 1%. Ethereum, the second largest digital asset by market cap, also dropped by 1%. According to Cryptowatch, the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum sits strong at 0.82. Therefore, it is expected that Ethereum will mirror Bitcoin’s price movement.
Despite the dip, Bitcoin is still up 0.4% in the past 24 hours and 1.2% in the past week. Ethereum is down 0.1% at the time of writing but has seen 5.1% gains in the past week.
Fed officials also noted the collapse of FTX, acknowledging its impact on the crypto ecosystem. However, they claimed that the situation did not have a serious effect on the wider financial system. The meeting summary stated, “while the spillovers from this situation had been significant among other crypto lenders and exchanges, the collapse was not seen as posing broader market risks to the financial system. (Valium) ”
China’s national digital currency DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment, DC/EP) will be built with Blockchain and Cryptographic technology. This revolutionary cryptocurrency could become the world’s first Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) as it is issued by the state bank People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The goal and objectives of the currency are to increase the circulation of the RMB and its international reach – with eventual hopes that the RMB will a global currency like the US Dollar. China has recently established an initiative to push forward Blockchain adoption, with the goal of beating competitors like Facebook Libra – a currency that Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg claims will become the next big FinTech innovation. China has made explicit that Facebook Libra poses a threat to the sovereignty of China, insisting that digital currencies should only be issued by governments and central banks. DCEP is not listed on cryptocurrency exchanges and will not be for speculation of value.
The significance of DCEP is that it’s designed as a replacement for the Reserve Money (M0) system, cutting back the cost and friction of bank transfers. It is suggested that DCEP will alleviate the risks of offline paper money transactions such as anonymous counterfeiting, money laundering and illegal financing. This is because regulators can better monitor digital currency transactions, which some consider will greatly improve financial and monetary supervision. DCEP can also reduce the costs involved in maintaining and recycling banknotes and coins.
Basically, DCEP is poised to become a digital version of the RMB.
Furthermore, the issuance of DCEP is conducive to promoting the internationalization of the RMB and reshaping the current cross-border payment system. This is because prior to the RMB Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System (CIPS) going live in early October 2015, RMB cross-border clearing and settlement was mainly done through CHIPS (Clearing House Interbank Payments System) or SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). However, some consider that both the CHIPS and SWIFT systems have fatal flaws. Firstly, CHIPS is a US company. Whilst SWIFT, in particular, is seen as a cause for concern to the Chinese because due to its foothold in the international banking system, it is almost essential to use SWIFT for inter-bank transfers across countries. Thus whoever controls SWIFT’s data center will have access to information on almost every cross-border remittance, which some in China posit is the US. This is because whilst SWIFT claims to be a neutral international organization, 12 of the 25 directors are either from the US and her allies. Also, its transactional data were found to have been supplied to the US. Hence it is thought that China is being held back by the US via the SWIFT system, and so, in internationalizing the RMB- China requires its own worldwide banking system- i.e. DCEP.
Hence the Chinese consider that it is a requirement to form a new currency clearing network.
According to Chinese media, DCEP is seen as the “3rd Wave” aimed at the US.
A mandate to adopt Blockchain
China has established a countrywide initiative to push forward Blockchain Adoption. President Xi Jinping has mandated that the ‘country’s development of blockchain technology should be sped up ‘ on Oct 24th in front of the Political Bureau. This speech has also been echoed by Li Wei, head of the People’s Bank of China. In April of 2020, China launched the Blockchain Service Network to unify all the Blockchain related projects in the Nation.
China has adopted the “Blockchain, not Cryptocurrency”, whereby the benefits of Blockchain is highlighted. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies that are native to Blockchain are suppressed as Cryptocurrency Exchanges and ICOs are banned in the country.
History and development of DCEP
Development of DCEP started in 2014 with the establishment of a research institute dedicated to digital currencies and looking at how to improve the Chinese Yuan system with blockchain technology. However during 2014 to 2018, the development process slowed down, probably because the decentralised nature of Bitcoin or blockchain is incompatible with the nature of the Renminbi as a legal national currency. Things rapidly picked up towards the end of 2019 however and this was directly attributable to Facebook preparing to launch Libra, particularly as partner members of the Libra Association and the currencies which Libra was to be backed by had consciously rejected China. Hence, feeling the heat of the competition, China’s central bank felt immense pressure to urgently speed up in the global competition towards a digital currency.
Former Vice-chair of the PBoC’s National Council for Social Security Fund announced on 22nd June 2020 that China had already completed the backend infrastructure of DCEP.
Uses for DCEP
DCEP will be the only legal digital currency in China
DCEP is a currency created and sanctioned by the Chinese Government. It is not a 3rd party stable coin such as Tether’s cryptocurrency token “CNHT” which is also pegged to the RMB in a 1:1 ratio. DCEP is the only legal digital currency in China (cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are not legal tender in China).
Huang Qifan (Chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center) said they have been working on DCEP for five to six years now and is fully confident it can be introduced as the country’s financial system. It’s currently being rolled out, with the People’s Bank of China issuing the currency. According to a speech by Huang at the China Finance 40 Forum, “DCEP can achieve real-time collection of data related to money creation, bookkeeping, etc, providing useful reference for the provision of money and the implementation of monetary policies.”
DCEP is not for speculation
China has made it explicitly clear that its National Digital Currency is not for speculation. Mu Changchun, Head of the People’s Bank of China digital currency institute made it as “a digital form of the yuan” and that “The currency is not for speculation. It is different to Bitcoin or stable tokens”. This is to the disappointment of the online community in China, where some netizens commented “So there will be no fun in it” on Sina.com.
It is also not possible to mine DCEP or stake on the DCEP network.
Cross-border payments with m-CBDC Bridge
China has joined forces to explore cross-border payments for digital currencies alongside Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).
According to a joint statement in February 2021, the People’s Bank of China and the UAE’s central bank are taking part in the Multiple Central Bank Digital Currency (m-CBDC) Bridge project initiated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Bank of Thailand in 2019.
The m-CBDC Bridge project will explore the capabilities of distributed ledger technology, through the development of a proof-of-concept prototype. The project ultimately aims to facilitate cross-border, multi-currency, real-time transactions around the clock.
This move aligns with China’s long-term ambition to use DCEP to boost the use of RMB in international payments. While the project is currently an alliance between just Beijing, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Abu Dhabi, it is strongly supported by the BIS, an organisation owned by 63 central banks.
The announcement also comes mere weeks after China’s joint venture with SWIFT, the dominant network facilitating international payments between banks. The new entity, Finance Gateway Information Service, was registered in Beijing on January 16 with €10 million (US$12 million) as incorporation capital, according to the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System, the Chinese government’s enterprise credit information agency.
Special features of DCEP
DCEP is a Centralized Currency
DCEP is a digital currency that is run on a centralized private network – the Central Bank of China has complete access and control of the currency. This is a huge contrast to Bitcoin, which has an open decentralized network where there is no centralized leader. In the case with DCEP, the Central bank of China has the ability to create or destroy DCEP.
NFC Contact based payment
According to Official Sina Blockchain, DCEP will have NFC based payment options that don’t require devices to be online during the transfer. This will be poised as a direct replacement of paper money, as DCEP will be usable in areas without internet coverage. In addition, DCEP doesn’t require the mobile device to be bound to a bank account – meaning the unbanked population will also have access to the digital currency.
With DCEP’s tap payment feature people can transfer money simply by tapping two phones together, without the use of the Internet. So DCEP is not exactly like blockchain either, rather it is their own variant.
China Construction Bank launches DCEP wallet
On 29th August 2020, China Construction Bank (CCB) had a soft launch of the DCEP wallet. Users of one of China’s big four state-owned commercial banks found a DCEP wallet feature was available inside their mobile app. Users were even able to navigate to the digital yuan wallet and activate it through registering their mobile phone numbers.
Finally, users can send/receive digital currency to others by inputting their unique wallet ID or the phone number associated with the bank account.
CCB DCEP wallet
However, CCB has disabled the DCEP wallet feature from public access, but not before it gained huge attention. Users searching for this wallet now will only get an error message saying that the function is not yet officially available to the public.
Tencent to be a major partner of DCEP
Tencent’s Meituan Dianping has been in talks with the research wing of the PBoC on real-world uses for DCEP. Meituan Dianping boasts billions of dollars in daily transactions on their mobile app platform offering services such as food delivery (similar to UberEats), B&B bookings (similar to AirBnb), ride hailing services, bike sharing, grocery shopping and more. Basically for those in China, all your daily necessities can be met on the Meituan ecosystem.
The PBoC’s research wing is also in talks with another Tencent-backed company, Bilibili Inc. which provides video streaming services. So whilst the specifics of the partnership are yet to be finalised, it is likely that such cooperation is going to be huge for the mass use of DCEP in China.
According to Caijing magazine, the pilot institutions for DCEP will be the 4 major state-owned banks i.e. China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. This initial deployment will serve as an official production test for the currency system, where the network and security will be validated. In the second phase, DCEP will be distributed to large fintech companies such as Tencent and Alibaba to be used in WeChat Pay and AliPay respectively.
DCEP will operate on a two-tiered system
The issuance and distribution of DCEP will be based on a two-tiered system.
The first tier would be transactions between the PBoC and intermediaries. These intermediaries would be financial institutions (e.g. the 4 major state-owned banks i.e. China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China) and non-financial institutions such as Alibaba, Tencent and UnionPay. Here, the PBoC would issue DCEP to the intermediaries.
The second tier would be between the above-mentioned intermediaries and participants in the retail market such as companies (e.g. retail stores) and individuals. In this tier, the intermediaries that have received DCEP will distribute it to retail participants so that it would circulate through the market e.g. through people purchasing items at stores etc.
The main difference in the issuance and distribution of DCEP compared to traditional cash however is the fact that DCEP would be transferred through electronic wallets, rather than bank accounts.
The central government has mandated that all merchants who accepted digital payments (such as Apple Pay, AliPay and WeChat) pay must accept DCEP. This will give DCEP a large nationwide acceptance in China, with every merchant obligated to participate or face a potential loss of their business license. This will make DCEP the most accepted digital currency in the world.
DCEP red packets to be launched for Chinese New Year
China’s DCEP app has launched a red packet gifting feature in time for the Chinese New Year on 22nd January 2023. The app will allow users to send the red packets i.e. “hongbao” containing DCEP to others. This is based on the Chinese New Year tradition of gifting lucky money during the annual festival. In fact, WeChat Pay and Alipay already have this feature for gifting CNY. However, it is the first time that e-CNY will be gifted in such a way, with hopes that this will further pave the way for the mass adoption of DCEP.
DCEP can be used to pay expressway tolls
On 28th December 2022, Chongqing Expressway Group announced it has completed the installation of equipment to accept DCEP for expressway tolls. From 30th December 2022, DCEP can be accepted as payment for tolls on the Chongqing Expressway. Users will need to download the e-CNY app and then simply present the payment QR code at the toll booth.
PBoC’s financial statistics reports now include DCEP/e-CNY
On 10th January 2023, the PBoC released its annual Financial Statistics Report for 2022. What is worth noting is that for the first time, the PBoC included statistics on DCEP/e-CNY. The Report states that as of the end of December 2022, the amount of digital currency in circulation was 13.61 billion yuan. This equates to around 0.13% of the total balance of yuan (13.61 trillion yuan) in circulation at the end of 2022.
Are people in China using DCEP?
According to a report on 28th December 2022, there has been over US$14 billion worth of DCEP transactions since its launch in 2020. Meanwhile, 261 million users have already set up an e-CNY wallet. However, this is considered low adoption since around 903.6 million people use mobile payments in China, according to a 2021 UnionPay report.
DCEP scams
Mere hours after DCEP has been announced, various (potentially scam) Chinese exchanges have listed IOUs or knock-offs clones of DCEP. It’s important to know that DCEP is currently only distributed to banks working with the PBoC and will not be available for the public. If you want to find out what are reputable exchanges, check out our top cryptocurrency exchanges guide. It is strongly recommended NOT to trade DCEP until it is officially released as there is no guarantee exchanges have access to the digital currency.
Knock-off clones of DCEP are already trading in (potentially) scam exchanges.
How to buy DCEP?
Currently, DCEP is only available to other banks working with the People’s Bank of China. This will eventually open up to the general public in 2020. There are currently no cryptocurrency exchanges that trade DCEP.
Implications of DCEP?
Is DCEP a challenge to the US monetary system?
The overwhelming view appears to be yes, both from the Chinese and the US perspective. According to statistics from the World Bank, 1.7 billion adults around the world use cash because they don’t have bank accounts. However, two-thirds of this population own a mobile phone, which can be used to make monetary transactions. This is what’s been happening in China, where mobile payments such as Alipay or WeChat Pay have more than 1.7 billion customers across China. Currently, the two online payment companies handle more payments monthly than Paypal did in the whole of 2017 (i.e. USD $451 billion). It’s very common in China to see street vendors accepting Alipay or WeChat pay.
Alipay and WeChat being accepted at an ATV rental shop
With the mobile wallet payment infrastructure in place, their cooperation with the PBoC could be the answer to distributing DCEP overseas. This would fit China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”, the aim of which is to build a new trade route connecting Asia with Europe and Africa. The idea is that with DCEP being used by mobile wallets, populations along the Belt and Road can be connected, bypassing existing financial infrastructures completely and giving an opportunity for the unbanked to pay for online purchases and build their savings.
In the US, the government does not see a demand for digital currencies. In a letter from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, he took the view that many of the challenges a digital currency intends to solve do not apply to the US. In his view, the US payments landscape is already highly competitive and innovative, with plenty of digital payments options for consumers. Powell also commented, echoing the sentiments of those US lawmakers opposing Libra, that a digital payment where you would know and be able to track each and every payment would be unattractive for the US.
Whilst the House Committee on Financial Services also sees Libra as potentially raising national security concerns, observers consider the challenge from China is not being taken seriously. Because on the other hand, China is worried that Libra will reinforce the dominance of the US Dollar and is therefore working on fast-tracking the launch of DCEP. And it is likely that China will outrun the threat from Libra.
From a wider perspective, some take the view that DCEP can be used as a weapon against the US in an economic war. This is because as DCEP becomes accepted across the Belt and Road, China will have the power of total surveillance and control over the economic activity of potentially half the world’s population. DCEP will allow China to track everyone’s spending and transactions, and can seize or lock customers’ digital assets in their mobile wallets. We’ve already seen this in China, where together with its “social credit system”, millions of individuals have already been barred from purchasing airline tickets using their mobile wallets.
Appearance on Chinese television debate show “Tiger Talk”
On 29th August 2020, I appeared on China’s Phoenix Television show “Tiger Talk” (一虎一席談). Tiger Talk is one of Phoenix TV’s longest-running shows, each week they feature a debate on a major societal issue or event, and would invite experts, academics and guests to participate in the discussion. I was invited by Phoenix Television as an overseas analyst to discuss the topic of the week, namely, “DC/EP: China’s release of digital currency, will it shake the US Dollar’s hegemony?”. You can watch the episode here.
Guest appearance on Tiger Talk
Implications of DCEP on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
In the first instance, it should always be borne in mind that DCEP and Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies are vastly different. Key differences are that DCEP does not necessarily use blockchain technology and that it is a centralised currency under the control of a centralised authority. Learn more about the differences between DCEP, Libra, Bitcoin and Cash.
However, the large scale promotion of DCEP on national television in August 2020 is certainly bracing and preparing Chinese citizens for a digital version of the RMB. The gradual rollout of DCEP will also get the average citizen accustomed to the actual usage of digital currencies.
As a result, many people are excitedly speculating on the possibility of a bridge between DCEP and various existing blockchain projects- with some projects proclaiming they will be the first project to launch on DCEP. However it must be borne in mind that we do not know the full technical details of DCEP, so we do not know how this bridge between blockchain and DCEP will work, if at all. Also, the fact is that China is currently very hostile towards cryptocurrencies, this is mostly due to a number of cryptocurrency scams- such as Plus Token. As a result, the Chinese government have closed several bank accounts found to be involved in cryptocurrency transfers and banned all ICOs, several major cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance and OKEx and some Over the Counter desks. Hence a lot of cryptocurrency circles and discussions occur underground, such as in private WeChat groups.
In a confusing twist, however, the CCP’s official media outlets 参考消息, Xinhua and CCTV have been pushing out headlines that crypto assets are the best-performing asset year to date. Dovey Wan, Founding Partner of Primitive Ventures has observed that the real intent behind this media push is difficult to interpret, but so far the Chinese cryptocurrency community see this as a signal that crypto has reached its top. Meanwhile, on the Western front on Twitter, people have been seeing this as a bull signal. Currently, without any further moves or news in China about DCEP or on the cryptocurrency front, we can only wait and see what China’s next move will be.
Hmm this is an interesting propaganda vibe from CCP’s official media outlets as “参考消息”, Xinhua and CCTV2
the headline “cryptoasset is the best performing asset YTD” was featured on all avenues, news paper, online media and TV
Will DeFi push governments to finally adopt CBDCs?
Decentralised Finance (DeFi) can be considered the cryptocurrency and blockchain star of 2020, having revived the cryptocurrency market and bringing some much-needed revival and positivity. But what is DeFi? In short, DeFi attempts to bring traditional banking to developing industries, but with a twist: it would be open-source, decentralised, cheap and will cut out the middlemen. (Xanax)
So what can central banks and government do to maintain their dominant status quo whilst benefitting from the technology that DeFi can bring? An answer could be to create a CBDC. In a Forbes article, the author suggests that CBDC would be a positive move for governments since it tokenises money whilst allowing users to enjoy the advantages of cheaper, faster transactions.
The article also touches upon our coverage of DCEP and discusses China’s progress in testing DCEP contrasted with the progress of introducing a CBDC in the US. It suggests that governments and institutions, however, will need to be quick to catch up as new DeFi solutions in payments, mortgage, insurance etc. are being created weekly, and this legion of fintech innovators are growing. These innovators challenge the status quo, and with the mounting advantages of DeFi, there may soon be a real contender vying for the attention of citizen-consumers.
FAQs
Is DCEP backed by Gold?
The simple answer is u0022Nou0022. On a recent episode of Kitco News, journalist Max Kaiser claimed that China will launch a gold-backed cryptocurrency, with the intention of destroying the USD as a reserve currency. He added that China has already amassed as much as 20,000 tons of gold. However this is mere speculation – China has no plans to return to the Gold Standard nor issue gold-backed cryptocurrencies.
Will DCEP be interoperable with other Cryptocurrencies
There are many plans to build gateways that allow the swapping of DCEP to other cryptocurrencies. Projects such as Algorand have stated they want to support DCEP and build possible bridges to swap these currencies. However, as the technical details of DCEP have not been fully revealed, such bridges have not been built yet.
Who can issue e-CNY?
There are 7 Chinese commercial banks that can provide e-CNY. They are: ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and China Merchant’s Bank. There are also 2 online banks that can provide e-CNY i.e. WeBank (WeChat Pay) and MyBank (Alipay).
Which Chinese Cities can sign up and use the e-CNY app?
Currently, there are 12 cities and areas in China which can sign up and use the e-CNY app. They are Shenzhen, Suzhou, Beijing Xiong’an, Chengdu, Shanghai, Hainan, Xi’an, Changsha, Dalian, Qingdao, and Zhangjiakou.
Can tourists or non- Chinese locals use DCEP?
No, DCEP is not fully rolled out yet and is only available in select cities in China.
Is China using DCEP?
According to a report on 28th December 2022, there have been over US$14 billion in transactions since the launch of DCEP in 2020 and October 2022. Meanwhile, 261 million users have already set up an e-CNY wallet. However, this is considered low adoption since, according to a 2021 UnionPay report, around 903.6 million people use mobile payments in China.
When will China officially launch DCEP e-CNY?
Whilst there is ongoing DCEP/e-CNY testing on in increasing scale, there is no official announcement as to when and how China will fully roll out DCEP/e-CNY.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risks and may result in the loss of your capital. You should carefully consider whether trading cryptocurrencies is right for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can fluctuate widely in a short period of time. As such, trading cryptocurrencies may not be suitable for everyone. Additionally, storing cryptocurrencies on a centralized exchange carries inherent risks, including the potential for loss due to hacking, exchange collapse, or other security breaches. We strongly advise that you seek independent professional advice before engaging in any cryptocurrency trading activities and carefully consider the security measures in place when choosing or storing your cryptocurrencies on a cryptocurrency exchange.
Binance is tackling to issue of proving where user funds are by using the third-party auditor Mazars, a leading Hong Kong-based auditing firm, to prove independently that user funds held by the exchange are safe and “untouched”. This is particularly important as users are demanding to know that funds are safe (or “SAFU”) and that they can trust the exchange to keep holding their funds. Auditing centralized exchanges help to ensure that they are compliant with applicable laws and regulations, as well as industry best practices. This helps to protect users from fraud, manipulation, and other malicious activities.
Binance BTC Reserves are Fully Backed
Mazars, an international audit, tax, and advisory firm, has confirmed that Binance has more than enough Bitcoin (BTC) to cover all customer deposits. The report verified a 101% collateralization ratio on 575,742 BTC in net customer deposits as first published on their proof-of-reserves system on November 25. All assets included customers’ spot, options, margin, futures, funding, loan and earn accounts for BTC and wrapped BTC circulating on the Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB Chain, and BSC blockchains.
To ensure customers’ assets are not being lent out or stolen without permission, Binance implemented a Merkle Tree proof-of-reserves system that allows customers to independently verify the safety of their assets.
Binance Merkle Tree Proof-of-Reserves (Source: Binance)
Binance Securely Controls Custodial Wallets
Mazars has also asked Binance to perform transactions at specific times to prove that the wallets were actually under Binance’s control. This clarifies the situation in late November when Binance moved 127,351 BTC to an unknown wallet. According to the report, Mazars used Etherscan and BSCscan to check that the wallets indeed belong to Binance.
Moreover, Mazars reviewed the scripts that Binance uses to extract the total net deposits, making sure there was no duplicated or rigged user IDs. This confirms that Binance’s Merkle tree is built with open source script developed by Silver Sixpence.
What This Means for Investors
Binance is the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, and is arguably the most used platform for all crypto users. After the collapse of FTX, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was jokingly hailed as the “savior” of crypto, doing everything he can to repair the industry. However, Binance itself is no exception to scrutiny as a result of FTX’s collapse. People need to know what centralized exchanges are doing with their money.
Binance’s audit has cleared up a lot of doubt, restoring confidence in the exchange. However, there are still two issues raised by the crypto community:
A Step in the right direction
Overall, auditing centralized exchanges are essential for protecting users and ensuring that exchanges are operating in a safe and secure manner. By conducting regular audits, exchanges can help to ensure that their customers are protected and that they are getting the best possible service. Binance has also provided on-chain proof of funds using “Merkle” Proofs in November of 2022. This means that Binance has taken efforts to prove that both Fiat and Crypto deposits in their custody are safe.
FAQ
Is Mazars a reliable auditing firm?
While most of the community praises Binance’s initiative, several Crypto Twitter users expressed concerns that Mazars is not one of the “Big Four” accounting firms: Deloitte, Ernst & Young (EY), PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), and KPMG. For the longest time, audits made by any one of the Big Four is the gold standard, and any other firms are deemed not “credible” enough. This is reasonable enough seeing as FTX was in fact audited by smaller accounting firms. But that might not be the case for Mazars. Founded in 1945, Mazars is one of Europe’s largest audit and accounting firms with global presence. In fact, Mazars was a longtime accountacy firm for former president Donald Trump. But after finding out Trump’s business filings were not adding up, Mazars cut ties with his business. Given their track record, it is safe to say that Mazars is reliable as they conduct due diligence on any business.
Binance audit only accounts for BTC reserves
The audit only focuses on BTC assets for now. As of now, Binance does not have a proof-of-reserves system for other cryptocurrencies. But at the end of the day, this is a big step towards a more transparent ecosystem. Let’s hope there will be more developments in the coming weeks.
You’d be surprised at how people, loaded with Bitcoin and other crypto, managed to lose their ticket to retirement.
One Wrong Click – $120,000 Crypto Gone
A phishing attack is the oldest play in the book, the bread and butter of web3 scammers.
They work by tricking victims with fake error messages, wallet pop ups, or flashy hyperlinks. They will then lead you to unofficial websites or extensions that would expose your wallet seed phrase or other sensitive information.
You’d think people would be more careful about connecting to shady websites, but the truth is both crypto newbies and veterans still fall victim to these to this day!
The story went viral and countless people also shared their unlucky experience. They reported to the authorities, but there was nothing they could do as cryptocurrency is still largely unregulated.
Always be cautious when encountering suspicious links especially from an unknown source. Also always double-check the link that you are clicking is indeed the right one. Some scammers can even copy the domains of well-known DApps with slight moderations to it, and you won’t even notice the difference.
Crypto Exchange CEO Died – All Users’ Assets Locked
This case is the literal sense of the phrase, “taking secrets to the grave.”
Canadian exchange QuadrigaCX’s CEO Gerald Cotten allegedly passed away in India in 2018. He was the sole custodian of the exchange’s crypto store, which is all held in cold storage.
No one has ever been able to unlock the digital wallet passwords on his encrypted laptop. As a result, over 115,000 users’ assets are locked indefinitely, including 26,500 Bitcoin, 11,000 Bitcoin Cash, 200,000 Litecoin, and 430,000 Ethereum.
The morale of the story is never store your crypto on exchanges, especially if you have large holdings. Consider holding your funds in hardware wallets like Ledger Nano X, Ledger Nano S or Trezor Model T.
Forgotten Password to 7,002 Hard-Earned Bitcoin
About 20% of all Bitcoins are lost in circulation. That is a lot of money that is unlikely to be recovered. This happens when users forget their private key or even the password to the hard drive containing the private key.
German engineer Stefan Thomas was given 7,002 Bitcoin in exchange for creating an animated video in 2011 called “What is Bitcoin?” However, he has forgotten the password to his encrypted hard drive called IronKey, which stores the private key to the Bitcoins.
IronKey allows users 10 attempts to input their password correctly before the funds are encrypted forever. Thomas only has two attempts left before his Bitcoins are gone forever.
Always remember to write down your password and seed phrase on a piece of paper and store it securely. Or it would be a lifetime of regret.
Spring Cleaning Gone Wrong – 8,000 Bitcoins Lost
Remember when some of your stuff would go missing, only to find out your mom had thrown them away because she thought it was useless? An action figure with sentimental value? No big deal!
But for James Howells, it was life-changing. He had two identical laptop hard drives — one was blank and the other contained 8,000 Bitcoins. Howells had meant to throw out the blank one when he was clearing out the office, but instead the drive containing the crypto ended up in a landfill in Newport, Wales!
This unlucky disaster continues to haunt Howells to this day. He has repeatedly petitioned Newport City Council if he can dig up the landfill site, which were all denied.
10,000 Bitcoins for 2 Pizzas
May 22 is known as Bitcoin Pizza Day. It is a well-known story in the crypto world. It was the day Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 Bitcoins for two Papa John’s pizzas in 2010, which was worth $30 at the time. Now they are worth nearly $230 million!
We can’t blame him for not knowing the future. Since Bitcoin did not have that much value back then, it was more like redemption points for pizza. Had he held his Bitcoins, he would not have to work a day in his life again.
Amazingly, Laszlo said that he had no regrets about it, and was happy to be a part of the early history of Bitcoin. In fact, Hanyecz is the first person to use Bitcoin in a commercial transaction.
All financial markets experience different cycles and market conditions. Since crypto asset prices also go through prolonged periods of bullish and bearish movements, the crypto market is no exception. The most dreaded market phase for crypto traders and investors is a declining or bearish phase, especially one that sustains itself for a long time.
General sentiments regarding the crypto and other financial markets are bleak during these periods, making many investors and crypto enthusiasts understandably worried. However, many traders still find ways to make money during unfavourable market conditions. To earn when the market is down, it is important to understand the concept of a bear market.
Check out our video comparing the crypto bear market in 2018 vs 2022, and how you can still profit during this period of downward price trends:
Table of Contents
What Is a Crypto Bear Market?
A bear or bearish market is a prolonged period characterized by falling prices of at least 20% across major crypto assets. Individual crypto assets may also be in a bear market if they experience a decline of 20% or more over an extended period. A bear market may occur due to widespread pessimism and negative market sentiment, as well as other internal or external factors. Additionally, a weak or slowing economy, pandemics, wars, and geopolitical crises are also characteristics that may cause a bear market.
7 Ways to Make Money and Profit in a Crypto Bear Market
Even when the market is in an overall downtrend, the blockchain and DeFi sector offers various ways for crypto traders and investors to still emerge profitable and victorious. Here are a few lucrative options that crypto investors and traders can utilize to make money and remain afloat in a bearish market phase.
Yield Farming
Yield Farming is a cryptocurrency investment method that allows investors to earn interest and rewards on their crypto assets. With yield farming, investors lend their crypto assets to DeFi platforms that hold these assets in a liquidity pool for a specified period. These pools provide liquidity to decentralized finance platforms that use the funds and ensure that the depositors earn some interest over time.
For those who are new, check out our video on the top yield farming mistakes all newbies make:
Crypto Staking
Staking is the process of earning rewards by locking up funds on a blockchain. Although similar to yield farming, this process does not use tokens for loans. Instead, Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchains use staking to validate transactions on their networks.
Users who stake more tokens get higher priority to validate transactions and earn more funds. Earnings from asset staking vary between platforms and depend on the governance community in each case. Before getting involved in yield farming or staking, always do your own research and make sure the returns are sustainable, as many times, there are ludicrous and unsustainable offerings that result in users losing all of their funds.
Crypto Savings and Crypto Lending
Savings and lending are good ways to make passive income from crypto during a bear market. These methods involve storing assets on a platform to earn simple interest on the deposits. Traders should remember that potential earnings mainly depend on the amount stored. Again, do your own research before allocating any capital to these types of platforms.
Forks and Airdrops
Altcoin forks and airdrops are also effective ways to make money in a bear market. A fork happens when users vote to diverge a blockchain and form another due to a material disagreement. This process leads to an airdrop where holders of the old token get the new tokens to participate in the forked blockchain. Depending on the value of the forked token, users can earn quite a bit by simply holding newly acquired tokens. (Modafinil)
Margin Trading
One of the most common ways to make money in a down-trending market is margin trading. This method is simply the process of trading crypto assets with funds from brokers. Margin trading allows users to trade with more money than they have in their accounts, thereby increasing potential profit. Although margin trading is an effective way to earn in a bear market, this method is only recommended to experienced crypto traders, as you can lose the entirety of your initial capital if the market moves in the opposite direction of your call.
Analyze Smaller DeFi Projects
A new DeFi project may have a low valuation after launch, but show huge promise in the long run. Crypto enthusiasts who take the time to analyze and research these projects can likely find and profit from the right ones. Even in a bear market, crypto investors who get in early enough tend to make gains from the increase in the asset prices of these crypto projects.
Dollar-Cost Averaging
One of the most effective ways to thrive in a bear market is to buy the dip. With dollar-cost averaging, investors buy assets at consistent intervals and properly observe market conditions before reinvesting. Since the cryptocurrency market’s volatility is unpredictable, it is nearly impossible to predict the lowest point before a reversal. Hence, dollar-cost averaging helps investors maximize profits by allowing them to buy at low points before the market becomes bullish. You lower your risk by lowering your potential downside and upside, but also allocating capital in a way where you will not only hit peaks and troughs.
Next Steps
Any crypto market condition has potential for profitability if you know how to play it right. The above strategies can help even novice crypto traders earn when the market is bearish. However, traders should note that their preferred strategy should depend on their risk tolerance and portfolio size. Traders should also learn to study the market to ensure that the chosen method will be effective at a particular time.
