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Category: Technical Analysis

Cryptocurrency technical analysis attempts to understand the market sentiment behind price trends of specific cryptocurrencies by looking for patterns and trends in price charts of the coin or token rather than looking at fundamental attributes of the project. This section gives an introductory look at technical analysis as well as the most popular chart patterns found in cryptocurrency trading.

  • Identifying Key Levels in Price Action Trading (Beginner’s Guide Series Part 1)

    Identifying Key Levels in Price Action Trading (Beginner’s Guide Series Part 1)

    Welcome to one of the most essential skills in price action trading: identifying key levels. These are specific price points on a chart where the market tends to react, either by reversing, consolidating, or breaking out. For beginners, mastering key levels means you can make smarter trading decisions with just a few simple lines on your chart. In this guide, we’ll break down what key levels are, how to identify them, and how to use them with recent examples from Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Let’s dive in!

    4 Types of Key Levels

    Before we start, let’s understand the four types of key levels you’ll encounter:

    1. Technical Key Levels: These are based purely on technical analysis (TA) and price action—your bread and butter as a trader.
    2. Weekly Levels: These are tied to weekly market sessions, specifically Monday highs, Monday lows, Friday highs, and Friday lows, reflecting the opening and closing of traditional stock markets.
    3. Psychological Levels: These are round numbers that retail traders focus on, like $100,000 for BTC or $4,000 for ETH. They’re popular because they’re easy to spot and often trigger buying or selling.
    4. Event-Based Levels: These are tied to major market events, like Federal Reserve announcements or crypto-specific news (e.g., ETF approvals). They’re less common but can influence price action.

    For beginners, we’ll focus on technical key levels and weekly session key levels in this article, as they’re the most reliable and practical for everyday trading. We’ll also use recent BTC and ETH examples to show how these levels work in real markets.

    Identifying Technical Key Levels

    Technical key levels are price points where the market has shown significant reactions—think strong bounces, rejections, or breakouts. To find them, you’ll create ranges on your chart, which consist of three main components: range low, range high, and mid-range. Here’s how to spot them:

    • Range Low: This is a swing low where the price bounces strongly after a dump. It acts as support.
    • Range High: This is a level where the price faces resistance, often rejecting or breaking out after a rally.
    • Mid-Range: Defining a mid-range is not necessarily the halfway point between the range low and range high, but rather a “loose” S/R level where price often finds reactions. Price action is almost always volatile around this key level and requires careful analysis.

    Let’s walk through a step-by-step process using a recent BTC example. I will also be referring to specific dates in the images below. But since I do not want to clutter the chart, you can open your TradingView to refer to those dates if you want to follow along without any confusion!

    Example: Bitcoin’s Technical Key Levels (February-May 2025)

    Figure 1. BTCUSDT.P on Bybit (1D Timeframe)

    From February to May 2025, BTC was trading in a range between $78,210.5 (range low) and $95,058.7 (range high). Now I know what you’re thinking: price has dumped to as low as $74,456.2 and pumped to as high as $97,868 (marked by the yellow semi circles), but how are those price points not considered as range low and range high? These are called “deviations” and we will explain this in the next article (you don’t need to know this yet as they are for actual trade executions, whereas identifying key levels is generally the strategy part).

    Range Low ($78,210.5): From February 24 to February 28, BTC dumped from $96,536.3 to $78,210.5 with almost no sustaining buying pressure. But from February 28 to March 2, BTC bounced sharply from $78,210.5 to $95,058.7. This strong bounce confirms $78,210.5 as the range low, acting as support.

    Range High ($95,078.7): Shortly after BTC rallied to $95,078.7, price failed to go any higher and rejected strongly the following days. What makes this an even stronger range high is the fact that price nearly retested the $96,536.3 price point on February 24 which triggered the sharp dump in the first place.

    Mid-Range ($87,178): The middle of this range, around $87,178, saw choppy price action. It primarily acted as a “mini resistance” from March 7 to April 20 where price rejects every time it retested $87,178. But on April 21, the daily candle closed above the mid-range which showed buying strength, and the following day BTC pumped to as high as $94,000 after retesting the mid-range on market open. From there on, the mid-range acts as a support if price reverses from the range high. This is also known as a higher time frame (HTF) support/resistance (S/R) flip region, as it’s significant on both 4-hour and daily charts.

    The Tricky Thing about Mid-Range

    Mid-ranges can change as price action develops over time. Look at the chart below and you will see that there was another mid-range at $85,023.4 (marked by the yellow dotted line). Price found its way there after the rejection off of range high and had another strong bounce to $92,781.6 before reversing to the downside again and retesting the range low.

    Figure 2. BTCUSDT.P on Bybit (1D Timeframe)

    The yellow dotted line was the S/R region before April 21. But after the breakout on April 21 and more importantly the strong continuation on April 22, we now see the bigger picture – there is an imbalance of liquidity created by the buyers on April 21 and 22. At some point in the future, it is likely those areas will get filled which overlaps with the current mid-range (white dotted lines).

    Anyways, the most important principle you have to remember is the more reactions the key level have seen, the more valid they are as a key level, and this is especially applicable to mid-ranges. The current mid-range of BTC as shown above still saw multiple rejections same as the previous mid-range.

    What Happens If Price Breaks Out of Range?

    Figure 3. ETHUSDT.P on Bybit (3D Timeframe)

    From January 22, 2024 to March 3, 2025, ETH was trading in a range between $2,167.17 and $4096.21. For the longest time, the range low held strongly as an HTF support – price had bounced sharply from the range low 3 times. But on March 9, 2025, price has completely broken below the range low and failed to reclaim it the following week. This means the yellow-lined ranges are no longer in play.

    In such situations, we will need to look further back to identify previous pivot points and establish our new key levels.

    Figure 4. ETHUSDT.P on Bybit (1W Timeframe)

    Going all the way back to January 2022, we have marked out previous pivot points and used those areas as our new key levels for ETH.

    New Range Low ($877.7): Price dumped from $3,581 to $877.7 and then strong bounce from there to $2,029.4. Remember, the first swing low often serves as the range low.

    New Range High ($3,581): Marked from the initial dump at $3,581 in April 2022. You can also use the previous range high at $4,096.21 (figure 4) as the current range high – there’s nothing wrong with that! However, if you look closely, you will notice the price action above $3,581 are “swing failure patterns” which you will learn in the next article along with “deviations”.

    New Mid-Range ($2,155): Notice how the previous range low (figure 3) coincides with our new mid-range. Yes! More often than not, new mid-ranges come from previous range lows (if bearish) and previous range highs (if bullish).This is because it is in the nature of mid-ranges to play the critical role of S/R flip regions. Look closely and you will see that before January 2024, $2,155 was a strong resistance for ETH until it flipped support from there on until the collapse on March 9, 2025.

    Now let’s bring up both the yellow and white ranges and you will see the full picture.

    Figure 5. ETHUSDT.P on Bybit (1W Timeframe)

    So in terms of our current play for ETH, until the current mid-range at $2,155 is reclaimed, there is a possibility that the range low, though not guaranteed, will be retested.

    Identifying Weekly Session Key Levels

    Weekly levels are based on significant price points from the start and end of the trading week—specifically Monday highs, Monday lows, Friday highs, and Friday lows. These levels reflect the opening and closing dynamics of traditional markets and are often respected in crypto trading as well. They’re excellent for short-term trades, helping you set precise entry points, stop-losses, and take-profit targets. Plus, they can act as liquidity zones where market makers might target stop-losses, so you’ll need to watch for potential traps.

    Let’s look at a real-world example using Bitcoin (BTC) on a 4-hour chart from early May 2025. The chart marks key weekly levels from the previous week and the start of the current week, giving us a clear framework to work with.

    Figure 6. BTCUSDT.P on Bybit (4H Timeframe)

    Previous Friday High ($97,868.0): This was the highest price on the last trading day of the previous week (May 2). It acts as a resistance level.

    Previous Friday Low ($96,306.9): The lowest price on that Friday, serving as a support level.

    Monday High ($95,149.0): The highest price on Monday, May 5, 2025, acting as a potential resistance or target.

    Monday Low ($93,460.2): The lowest price on Monday, serving as a key support level.

    Here’s how these levels played out and how you can use them in your trading:

    • Friday Levels as a Range: The Previous Friday High ($97,868.0) and Low ($96,306.9) form a range that price often respects. On May 2, the price reached $97,868.0 but rejected sharply, dropping to $95,500.0 by May 3. This rejection confirms the Friday High as a strong resistance. The price then consolidated near the Friday Low ($96,306.9) on May 4, showing that this level acted as support during the decline.
    • Monday Levels as Support/Resistance: On Monday, May 5, the price dropped to the Monday Low ($93,460.2) early in the session, marking a significant support level. It then bounced sharply, rallying to the Monday High ($95,149.0) later that day. The Monday Low held as support when the price retested it on May 6, bouncing to $94,500.0. Meanwhile, the Monday High ($95,149.0) acted as resistance on May 7, where the price wicked above but rejected back down to $94,300.0.
    • Trading Application: Let’s say you’re looking to trade on May 6 after the price bounces from the Monday Low ($93,460.2). You could enter a long position at $93,600.0, targeting the Monday High ($95,149.0) or even the Previous Friday Low ($96,306.9) for a higher reward. Place your stop-loss just below the Monday Low, around $93,300.0, to protect against a breakdown. This setup gives you a high reward-to-risk (RR) ratio: the distance to $96,306.9 (2,706.9 points) is much larger than your risk (300 points), yielding a 9:1 RR.
    • Liquidity Traps: Notice the wick below the Monday Low ($93,460.2) on May 5, dropping briefly before bouncing. This is a classic liquidity grab—market makers likely pushed the price below to hit stop-losses before reversing. Similarly, the rejection at the Previous Friday High ($97,868.0) on May 2 trapped breakout buyers. Be cautious around these levels, as wicks often signal traps.

    How to Use Weekly Levels in Practice?

    If the price holds above the Monday Low ($93,460.2), look for longs targeting the Monday High ($95,149.0) or Previous Friday Low ($96,306.9). If it breaks below, consider shorts targeting the next support, like $92,500.0 (a recent swing low). For stop-losses, place them just outside the weekly levels—below the Monday Low for longs, or above the Friday High for shorts—to avoid being caught in liquidity grabs.

    Tips for Weekly Levels

    • Mark the Levels: Use UTC timezone to identify Monday and Friday key levels. On the chart, draw lines at the highs and lows of those candles. For example, the Monday High ($95,149.0) and Low ($93,460.2) on May 5 are clear markers for the week.
    • Watch for Reactions: Look for rejections, bounces, or breakouts at these levels. The rejection at $97,868.0 (Previous Friday High) and the bounce from $93,460.2 (Monday Low) show how price respects these zones.
    • Combine with Other Levels: Weekly levels work best when paired with technical levels (like mid-ranges or HTF S/R flips). For instance, if the Monday Low aligns with a mid-range, it’s an even stronger support.

    Ever since ETFs for BTC and ETH have been approved, large institutional players have become involved with trading BTC and ETH. This makes weekly levels a powerful tool for short-term trades. They give you clear targets and stop-loss zones, but always be mindful of liquidity traps, as seen with the wicks around these levels.

    Conclusion

    The most important principle to take away from identifying key levels in price action trading is that the more reactions a key level has seen, the more valid and reliable it becomes. Whether it’s a range low, range high, mid-range, or weekly level, the significance of a price point grows with each bounce, rejection, or breakout it experiences, as these reactions reflect the market’s memory and the involvement of both retail and institutional players.

    Key levels give you clarity by giving structure to the market’s historical data. But remember, this is just the planning part. Even if you have mastered this part at identifying key levels, the actual trade executions can be very different. We will cover this in the next article.

  • Top Chart Patterns Every Crypto Trader Should Know

    Top Chart Patterns Every Crypto Trader Should Know

    Chart patterns are an integral aspect of Technical Analysis, but they require some getting used to before they can be used effectively. A chart pattern is a shape within a price chart that helps to suggest what prices might do next, based on what they have done in the past. Chart patterns tend to repeat themselves and can give you a real competitive advantage in the markets if you are able to learn to recognize them.

    The market is constantly changing. In many cases, it does not matter how you feel about it, it only matters how the market is going to feel about it.

    Market sentiment is a critical indicator to predict price movements and make investment decisions. An easy way to gauge market sentiment is by looking at chart patterns. They tend to repeat themselves, and once you are able to recognize them, it becomes easier to strategize your entries and exits.

    However, it is important to note that they are NOT a guarantee that the market will move in that predicted direction. It should only serve as a frame of reference for you to feel how the market moves.

    The most important thing to remember when using chart patterns as part of your technical analysis is that they are not a guarantee that a market will move in that predicted direction, they are merely an indication of what might happen to an asset’s price. Below are some of the most common chart patterns studied by technical analysts as they appear on the Bitcoin/USD chart:

    1. Head and Shoulders

    This is a bullish and bearish reversal pattern that has a large peak in the middle and smaller peaks on either side. The Head and shoulders pattern is considered to be one of the most reliable reversal chart patterns. This pattern is formed when the prices of the stock rise to a peak and fall down to the same level from where they had started rising. Again, the prices rise and form a peak higher than the last peak and again it declines to the original base. Prices again rise to form a third peak, which is lower than the second peak and from here it starts declining to the base level. When the prices break the baseline with volume then a bearish reversal takes place.

    Head and shoulders is a chart pattern in which a large peak has a slightly smaller peak on either side of it. Traders look at head and shoulders patterns to predict a bullish-to-bearish reversal. Typically, the first and third peak will be smaller than the second, but they will all fall back to the same level of support, otherwise known as the ‘neckline’. Once the third peak has fallen back to the level of support, it is likely that it will break out into a bearish downtrend.

    Head and Shoulders
    Head and Shoulders

    2. Double Top

    A double top is a bearish reversal pattern that traders use to highlight trend reversals. The price forms a peak and retrace back to a level of support. It will then climb up once again before reversing back more permanently against the prevailing trend. A double top is a bearish pattern as it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

    Double Top
    Double Top

    3. Double Bottom

    A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that is opposite to the double top. Price forms a peak and then retrace back to a level of resistance. It then forms a peak once more before reversing back from the prevailing trend. A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern, because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

    Double Bottom
    Double Bottom

    4. Wedges

    Wedges are bullish and bearish reversal as well as continuation patterns which are formed by joining two trend lines which converge. There are two types of the wedge, rising and falling. Both rising and falling wedges are reversal patterns, with rising wedges representing a bearish market and falling wedges being more typical of a bullish market.

    • A rising wedge is represented by a trend line caught between two upwardly slanted lines of support and resistance. This pattern generally signals that an asset’s price will eventually decline more permanently, which is demonstrated when it breaks through the support level.
    • A falling wedge occurs between two downwardly sloping levels. This pattern is usually indicative that an asset’s price will rise and break through the level of resistance.
    Wedges
    Wedges

    5. Cup and Handle

    The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that is used to show a period of bearish market sentiment before the overall trend finally continues in a bullish motion. The cup appears similar to a rounding bottom chart pattern. Following the cup, the price of an asset will likely enter a temporary retracement, which is known as the handle because this retracement is confined to two parallel lines on the price graph. The asset will eventually reverse out of the handle and continue with the overall bullish trend.

    Cup and Handle
    Cup and Handle

    6. Pennants

    A pennant pattern or a flag pattern is created when there is a sharp movement in the price either upward or downward. This is followed by a period of consolidation that creates the pennant shape because of the converging lines. Then a breakout movement occurs in the same direction as the big stock move. At the initial stock movement there is a significant volume which is followed by weaker volume in the pennant section and then rise in the volume at the breakout. Pennants can be either bullish or bearish, and they can represent a continuation or a reversal.

    Pennants
    Pennants

    7. Triangles

    Ascending Triangles

    The ascending triangle is a bullish continuation pattern which signifies the continuation of an uptrend. It can be drawn onto charts by placing a horizontal line along the swing highs, which acts as the resistance, and then drawing an ascending trend line along the swing lows, the support. Eventually, the trend breaks through the resistance and the uptrend continues.

    Ascending Triangles
    Ascending Triangles

    Descending Triangles

    Just like the ascending triangle, the descending triangle is also a continuation chart pattern. The only difference is that it is a bearish continuation pattern and it is created during the downtrend. They generally shift lower and break through the support because they are indicative of a market dominated by sellers. Descending triangles can be identified from a horizontal line of support and a downward-sloping line of resistance. Eventually, the trend breaks through the support and the downturn continues.

    Descending Triangles
    Descending Triangles

    Symmetrical Triangles

    Symmetrical Triangles are continuation chart patterns that are developed by two trend lines which converge. The symmetrical triangle pattern can be either bullish or bearish, depending on the market. In either case, it is normally a continuation pattern, which means the market will usually continue in the same direction as the overall trend once the pattern has formed. However, if there is no clear trend before the triangle pattern forms, the market could break out in either direction. This makes symmetrical triangles a bilateral pattern, meaning they are best used in volatile markets where there is no clear indication of which way an asset’s price might move.

    Symmetrical Triangles
    Symmetrical Triangles

    8. Chart Patterns to Identify Market Manipulation

    The “Bart Simpson” Pattern

    When we look at the Bitcoin chart in small time frames, one can identify sudden movements or ‘bump’ in one direction, followed by consolidation and a sudden ‘bump’ in the other direction that ends close to the base price. This phenomenon has given the name “Barts” because the asset’s price pattern looks like the head shape of the iconic Simpsons character, Bart Simpson.

    It is a familiar occurrence for Bitcoin, one noticed by investors time and again during volatile trading stretches. It appears as a result of hundreds-of-Bitcoin orders in a matter of minutes. The reason for these sudden pumps and dumps is likely to liquidate crypto margin traders, whether short or long, by manipulating the market. While some believe that this is done by the exchanges themselves, which is entirely possible due to the lack of regulations, this might be related to large crypto traders, commonly known as ‘whales.’

    Bart Simpson pattern
    Bart Simpson pattern

    Wyckoff Pattern

    The Wyckoff Pattern was first brought to light by Youtuber “Uncomplication” to unearth potential market manipulation by whales. The pattern was developed by Richard Demille Wyckoff, an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. The pioneering work of Richard D. Wyckoff was centered around the realization that stock price trends were driven primarily by institutional and other large operators who manipulate stock prices in their favor.

    Wyckoff proposed a heuristic device to help understand price movements in individual stocks and the market, which he dubbed the “Composite Man.” Wyckoff advised retail traders to try to play the market game as the Composite Man played it. The Composite Man attracts the public to buy a stock in which he has already accumulated a sizeable amount. Wyckoff and his associates believed that if one could understand the market behavior of the Composite Man, one could identify many trading and investment opportunities early enough to profit from them. Using Wyckoff’s method, one can invest in stocks by capitalizing on the intentions of the large “smart money” interests, rather than being caught on the wrong side of the market. 

    The Bottom Line

    Technical analysis can give cryptocurrency traders an insight into the past of crypto, facilitating future predictions. But sole reliance on technical analysis ignores sentiment or news. This is particularly problematic with cryptocurrency trading since factors like mining hash rates and governmental regulations can have significant impacts on the market.

    What is technical analysis?

    Technical analysis is a method of analyzing the price movements of a security or asset over time. It uses charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends in order to make predictions about future price movements.

    How does technical analysis work?

    Technical analysis works by looking at past price movements and using these to predict future price movements. This is done by looking at patterns in the data such as support and resistance levels, trend lines, and chart patterns.

    What are the advantages of using technical analysis?

    Technical analysis can be used to identify potential trading opportunities and to help traders make informed decisions. It can also help traders manage risk by identifying areas where they should exit their positions.

    What is support and resistance?

    Support and resistance are levels on a chart where the price of an asset has difficulty either breaking through or falling below. These levels can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades.

    What is a chart pattern?

    A chart pattern is a specific pattern that appears on a chart. Common chart patterns include head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, and triangles. These patterns can help traders identify potential trading opportunities.

    How can technical analysis be used in cryptocurrency trading?

    Technical analysis can be used to identify potential trading opportunities in the cryptocurrency markets. By looking at past price movements, traders can identify patterns and trends that can be used to make predictions about future price movements.

    Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risks and may result in the loss of your capital. You should carefully consider whether trading cryptocurrencies is right for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can fluctuate widely in a short period of time. As such, trading cryptocurrencies may not be suitable for everyone. Additionally, storing cryptocurrencies on a centralized exchange carries inherent risks, including the potential for loss due to hacking, exchange collapse, or other security breaches. We strongly advise that you seek independent professional advice before engaging in any cryptocurrency trading activities and carefully consider the security measures in place when choosing or storing your cryptocurrencies on a cryptocurrency exchange.

  • Celsius Network ($CEL) Collapse – The End Of Centralized DeFi?

    Celsius Network ($CEL) Collapse – The End Of Centralized DeFi?

    Celsius Network was one of the largest gateways to crypto with $864 million worth of venture capital raised. They also had over $3 billion worth of funds held in custody for 1.4 million customers. Offering attractive yields, simple to use UI, and promises of security and transparency, it was truly the perfect crypto on-ramp for less experienced crypto users. They abstracted away the complexities of DeFi (Decentralized Finance), and offered only pure and straightforward DeFi yields.

    However, their questionable asset management practices have recently come to light. Celsius Network’s risk management strategy heavily relied on continued bullish crypto narratives pushing prices upwards. Which left them unprepared for significant drawdowns. They also engaged in “degenerate trading” strategies which put them at risk of liquidation and potential bankruptcy.

    Some believe Celsius will be another big platform to collapse during this bear market, potentially pushing crypto prices even lower than before. And likely resulting in a further liquidation cascade that could destroy protocols, VCs, investment funds, and others.

    For another perspective on the situation on Celsius Network and how events may unfold, check out Michael’s analysis: 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGbCX-AdiY4

    Celsius Network – Then And Now

    What is Celsius Network?

    Celsius Network ($CEL) is a one-stop shop fintech app that offers the ease-of-use benefits of CeFi (Centralized Finance) with the best DeFi offerings. They are a centralized DeFi platform allowing users to deposit funds into custodial wallets on the platform. They also offered a range of DeFi services. These included token swaps, high yields on stablecoins and cryptocurrencies and crypto-backed lending and borrowing.

    Celsius had a straightforward dashboard, free inter-account crypto transfers and a variety of DeFi features. Hence, Celsius managed to offer a truly incredible product to over a million customers, attracting industry respect and venture capital. So what went wrong?

    The Demise of Celsius Network?

    Celsius’ demise can be summed up in three parts. Firstly, its problems really started to surface during the LUNA collapse, then followed by a slow unravelling of Celsius’ overleveraged. Finally, poorly planned out WBTC and ETH/stETH positions led them to a complete lockdown of their platform.

    LUNA/UST Giga Yields

    Luna, through its Anchor protocol, promised a “risk-free” 20% interest on their USD-pegged stablecoin, UST. This was a highly popular product right up until its collapse. However, Celsius was also taking advantage of these high yields, which allowed them to offer high yields to customers while taking some profit.

    Although this was denied by Celsisus’ founder, on-chain investigations by firms such as The Block Research, Hoptrail, and Nansen revealed that Celsius was staking up to $535 million worth of UST on Anchor protocol. Reportedly, prior to the full depeg of UST, Celsius managed to withdraw their funds with minimal damage. This left the Terra ecosystem with half a billion-dollar hole in their pockets. It seems that Celsius managed to get out of that situation mostly unscathed. However, this should’ve served as a red flag that indicated what kind of risk Celsius is willing to take on.

    WBTC as DAI collateral

    This one’s also pretty straightforward. Celsius used customer’s WBTC (wrapped BTC on Ethereum) as collateral to borrow DAI on the Maker protocol. This is so they could stake the DAI stablecoin for very favorable yields. Everything had been going great until BTC prices rapidly tumbled after the UST collapse. As prices tumbled, it was cheaper to keep adding collateral instead of paying off their DAI debt, losing some capital and the DAI yields. This did this likely in hope for a trend reversal or possibly a short-lived BTC relief rally. However, customers’ funds were subsidising this collateral.

    stETH & locked ETH

    Celsius offered their customers an attractive <8% yield on ETH while the best ETH staking deal one could get was by staking their ETH on the Ethereum PoS Beacon chain, which offers ~4.2% yield at best. So how could they possibly deliver such an incredible deal for their customers?

    The solution was staked ETH (stETH) which is a liquid ETH derivative offered by Lido Finance. stETH is a fully collateralized representation of ETH staked on the Ethereum PoS Beacon chain. After the Merge, when users can withdraw staked ETH, 1 stETH will be redeemable for 1 ETH. This allows anyone to earn a yield on ETH offered by the Beacon chain without running the staking infrastructure. But, stETH’s dollar value is not pegged to ETH’s dollar-value. Also, stETH cannot be redeemed for ETH.

    So Celsius was doing three things with their customer’s ETH to generate the exorbitant yields:

    1. Lending out ETH and earning interest on DeFi protocols (27% of their total ETH);
    2. Swapping them for stETH to generate ETH staking yields and at the same time lending out stETH to provide liquidity and earn interest on Curve Finance, a decentralized crypto exchange. (44%); and 
    3. Staking ETH on Beacon chain, rendering it illiquid for at least a year or whenever The Merge happens and the ETH gets unlocked. (27%).

    The current issue Celsius is facing is the fact that while swapping an equivalent amount of ETH for stETH, stETH currently is not trading for the same dollar value as its ETH equivalent. This is due to several reasons. As a result, they’re currently in possession of roughly $0.94 for every $1 worth of ETH owed to their customers. On paper. In reality, it’s much worse than that. Celsius holds ~445k stETH, currently valued at $540 million and cannot all be swapped for ETH on the Curve Finance pool due to lack of liquidity.

    So, Celsius was lending 27% of their ETH on DeFi, and swapped 44% of their ETH for stETH. However this stETH is now worth less than ETH. stETH also cannot even be fully exchanged for ETH. As a result, most of Celsius’ ETH is illiquid.

    Celsius Liquidity Crisis

    The situation is getting direr by the day for Celsius. Whilst BTC and ETH prices were tumbling, their ETH liquidity was drying up. Hence they had to top up their WBTC collateral several times from 22k all the way down to 14k to avoid margin calls.

    To do this, they’ve put all withdrawals, swaps, and transfers between accounts on hold since 12th June 2022. Thereby completely locking users out of their assets. This was to prevent a bank run, which would’ve completely drained Celsius of their holdings.

    Celsius files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

    On 13th July 2022, Celsius Network filed for bankruptcy in the Southern District Court of New York. In its announcement that Celsius had filed for Chapter 11 protection. The filing of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection means that Celsius can continue operating its business and restructure its obligations.

    The Company also states it has US$167m cash on hand to support operations during the restructuring processes. It hopes that through the process, it would stabilize its business to maximize value for all its stakeholders.

    Will Celsius users get their cryptocurrencies back?

    Celsius’ Directors justified its earlier decision to pause trading and withdrawals to “… stabilise its business and protect its customers”. This is to prevent customers who did not quickly withdraw their funds from being left waiting for Celsius to come up with the liquidity.

    In an interview with Cointelegraph, Danny Talwar, Head of Tax at Koinly expressed concerns that Celsius may be like Mt.Gox. Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014 and users still have not seen any of their funds returned.

    Celsius has not made any announcement as to whether or not they will reopen the platform to allow withdrawals. In their blog post on 14th July 2022, Celsius stated that:

    “Most account activity will be paused until further notice. Withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts will remain paused, and rewards will stop accruing as of the date of the filing. Celsius is not requesting authority to allow customer withdrawals at this time.”

    Celsius Network blog post

    Looking forward, Celsius “…intend[s] to put forward a plan that restores activity across the platform, returns value to customers, and provides choices.”

    Celsius lawyers: Users gave up legal rights to their cryptocurrencies

    Celsius Network’s lawyers stated that users with Celsius’ Earn and Borrow accounts gave up the rights to their crypto under its terms of service.

    According to a tweet from Kadhim Shubber, a Financial Times reporter, Celsius Network’s lawyers stated the recovery plan would involve HODLing. They believe customers would be interested in hodl-ing throughout this bear market. Then they would realise their recovery when the market recovers.

    For more insights on whether Celsius will make a comeback, check out our latest video: Celsius will come back? Voyager users won’t get their crypto?

    Celsius to run out of money in October/November 2022?

    Celsius was initially expected to run out of money in October 2022 according to their Weekly Cash Flow Forecast filed with the Court. However, an updated Forecast filed on 6th September 2022 shows that the Company will still have US$42 million in cash left by the end of November 2022.

    Celsius weekly cash flow forecast
    Celsius weekly cash flow forecast

    Profiting off the Celsius collapse? What is #CelShortSqueeze?

    Twitter hashtag #CelShortSqueeze has been trending even before Celsius Network filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. #CelShortSqueeze appears to have been set up as a grassroots movement by $CEL token supporters or traders liquidated by $CEL backed loans.

    The #CelShortSqueeze movement is an attempt by Celsius supporters to make it harder to short the $CEL token. This is by encouraging others to buy $CEL on exchanges such as FTX or Uniswap, and send the tokens to private wallets. The purpose of this is to take the $CEL tokens out of circulation of centralized exchanges. Hence spot short traders intending to borrow $CEL from exchanges are forced to use decentralized exchanges. This is because on decentralized exchanges, users can set the sell prices.

    The #CelShortSqueeze movement seems to be effective in propping up $CEL token prices at or over 80 cents. This is despite the news of Celsius filing for bankruptcy protection. Whilst prices initially dipped to 48 cents right after news of the bankruptcy came out, #CelShortSqueeze supporters helped bring back prices to 80 cents and over.

    In a win for #CelShortSqueeze supporters, prices of $CEL pumped to $1.42 on 29th July 2022, the highest in almost 1 month.

    The #CelShortSqueeze movement shows what retail investors can be capable of when they band together through the power of social media. There is a lot of uncertainty right now as to what will happen to the $CEL token as Celsius Network is figuring out how to restructure and rescue the company. The restructuring process can take years and it is unknown when Celsius will re-open withdrawals to customers. So Celsius holders are certainly hoping that the #CelShortSqueeze movement does not lose steam until then.

    Celsius seeks to open withdrawals for some customers

    On 1st September 2022, Celsius filed a Court motion to open certain accounts for customers to withdraw their funds. However, Celsius’ motion only applies to Custody and Withold Accounts and for assets with a value of US$7,575 or less. Celsius’ Custody and Withold Accounts are basically storage wallets and users still retain legal ownership of their cryptocurrencies. In contrast, Celsius’ Earn and Borrow Accounts offer borrowing and annual crypto earnings services. If the Court grants this motion, around US$50 million (out of the US$225 million held in the accounts) will be released to customers.

    Whilst some have reacted positively to this news, there are others who point out that this is hardly fair to affected Celsius users. Commentators have pointed out that in any event, under US law, Celsius is unable to avoid transferring sums under this amount if creditors so request.

    Celsius co-founder declares shares “worthless“

    Daniel Leon, one of the co-founders of Celsius is seeking a Court declaration that his equity in the Company is “worthless”. Leon is a substantial shareholder of the Company and holds 32,600 common shares. Shareholders make these declarations during bankruptcy proceedings when they do not think they will receive any further distribution for their holdings. The result of this declaration is that the shares can be used as a tax write-off.

    Celsius will be revived as Kelvin- a crypto custody service?

    According to an announcement at a Celsius employee meeting on 8th September 2022, CEO Alex Mashinsky and Head of Innovation and Chief Compliance Officer Oren Blonstein plan to revive Celsius. The plan is to launch a project called Kelvin, which will store users’ cryptocurrencies and charge fees for specific transactions.

    This is a departure from Celsius’ existing business model, where Celsius does not charge any fees for transactions, withdrawals, origination, or early termination.

    Latest: Celsius leaks customers’ personal data-where is the info now?

    On 5th October 2022, Celsius filed publicly available court documents revealing personal data on thousands of its customers. The court documents filed by Celsius revealed, among others, customers’ names, and transaction information such as transaction amounts, times, types, and descriptions. According to Henry de Valence, Founder of Penumbra Labs, the information leaked by Celsius is sufficient to “dox all the on-chain activity” of any Celsius user by matching the dates and amounts to the blockchain transaction data.

    However, this saga is far from over, as the customers’ data has recently been made publicly available on a website called Celsiusnetworth.com. The website lets people search the names of Celsius users, along with their cryptocurrency holdings on Celsius. It also included a leaderboard that listed which customers suffered the greatest losses.

    Celsius executives and founders withdrew nearly US$35 million before withdrawals were frozen

    As a result of Celsius’ court filings, it has been revealed that its executives had already withdrawn funds totaling nearly US$35 million in the weeks before withdrawals on the platform were frozen. Filings revealed that ex-CEO and co-founder Alex Mashinsky withdrew around US$10 million from the Celsius platform in May 2022. Meanwhile, co-founder and former chief strategy officer Daniel Leon withdrew around US$7 million, and current chief technology officer Nuke Goldstein around US$550,000.

    Celsius paused its withdrawals weeks later in June 2022 before filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in July.

    A spokesperson for Alex Mashinsky states that the US$10 million withdrawal was planned even before Celsius intended to pause withdrawals, as the funds were used to pay taxes. Also, Mashinsky’s family still had US$44 million worth of cryptocurrencies frozen on the Celsius platform.

    Conclusion

    What becomes of Celsius going forward is unclear. However, what is clear is that time and time again we get to witness the extreme importance of the age-old rules of crypto – be wary if something seems too good to be true, and never put in more than what you can afford to lose. 

    It is easy to become swept up in the hype, so doing your own research is incredibly important. Thinking critically and understanding the fundamentals can help you avoid a lot of heartache in the future.

  • Will the Launch of Ethereum 2.0 Crash Crypto Prices?

    Will the Launch of Ethereum 2.0 Crash Crypto Prices?

    Ethereum 2.0 is coming soon and the question everyone wants to know is “will it cause crypto prices to crash?” This is particularly as markets around the globe are not looking great, and that includes the crypto industry. Everything has been bleeding heavily for months without a sign of stopping, as central banks keep hiking rates, global supply chains struggle, and spending and investment dry up. Stagflation is a very real possibility, and there is no telling how long it will take for us to cool down the overheated markets that have been going only up since the last recession more than ten years ago. 

    The aforementioned notwithstanding, active development in the blockchain space continues to march forward. Although investments might drop significantly, many builders keep on building no matter the state of the markets. As Ethereum is steadily approaching the long-awaited transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS), dubbed The Merge, it might be interesting to think about potential impacts of The Merge on the crypto market prices, especially in the context of a potential extended bear market.

    Learn more: 

    Ethereum 2.0 is coming- Here’s what you NEED to know

    Proof of Stake (PoS) explained

    Ethereum ($ETH) Merge: What is it and everything you need to know

    Plus check out our video!

    About Ethereum 2.0

    In short, The Merge will result in Eth2.0’s Beacon chain (the coordination mechanism of the new network) merging with the current Ethereum mainnet, signifying the move to a fully PoS chain. To secure the network, enormous amounts of ETH will be staked in addition to the ETH already staked in the Beacon chain, making all of this locked ETH illiquid. Combined with the EIP-1559 upgrade, which now burns 70-80% of the fees, The Merge is expected to cause the equivalent of 3 bitcoin halvenings, dropping Ethereum’s inflation rate to 0.43% and locking up a lot of ETH, potentially reducing sell pressure by up to 90%. In addition, the PoS mechanism will reduce Ethereum’s energy consumption by up to 99.95%.

    So all is looking great for Ethereum and projects building on top of it, right? Possibly. However, there is still a decent chance that, given the current market conditions, ETH’s price pump might be short-lived, and would continue to drop, bringing down a lot of other projects with it.

    The Potential Impacts of The Merge

    There are two possible scenarios to look at when discussing the downside impact of The Merge on crypto prices:

    1. The external effect would be caused by Ethereum sucking out liquidity from other PoS alt-L1s and the projects built on top of them (especially if they’re EVM-compatible), as one of the more critical selling points compared to Ethereum is environmental sustainability.
    2. Beacon chain staked ETH unlocks, extended bear market, and poor treasury management of Ethereum-backed projects could see more capitulation events as HODLers and projects sell off their ETH to stay afloat as new investments dry up and stagflation looms.

    1. Ethereum Sucks Liquidity From Other PoS alt-L1’s

    By offering lower gas fees, fast transactions, and relatively high throughput at the expense of decentralization and economic sustainability, many PoS chains have attracted developers, investors, and NFT ecosystems to their networks away from Ethereum. Ethereum’s high demand (=high fees), poor L1 scalability, and the concerning PoW mechanism have severely limited its growth. (https://rpdrlatino.com) Understandably, regular people simply do not want to pay exorbitant fees when minting and trading NFTs, and developing inaccessible dApps on a network that is supposedly destroying trees and warming up the planet.

    The environmental argument will be completely invalid after the merge. Coupled with the enormous innovations in Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem, which have already reduced transaction fees to sub-$1 with no signs of stopping, Ethereum is set to once again become the most sought-after smart contract development platform. As post-Merge buy pressure of ETH increases and scalability improves, alt-L1’s could struggle to offer any significant unique selling points, making new projects opt to build on top of the most secure, established and decentralized smart contract chain out there.

    As more and more people flock to Ethereum, established projects might also decide to migrate to the platform with the most demand and upside potential, effectively sucking out liquidity from other chains, and leaving them dry with evaporated treasuries, limited runway, and reduced demand. The strategy of subsidizing transaction fees during a bull market when funds are plentiful will likely not work when no new investments are coming in during a bear market, and an exodus of users is reducing demand and network revenues.

    Of course, there is plenty of room for growth in this space, and projects existing on other chains might not find it too beneficial to move to Ethereum even though short-term liquidity issues might prove challenging.

    2. Beacon Chain ETH Unlocks in Extended Bear Market Cause Mass Capitulation

    The Merge will unlock a lot of ETH, resulting in a potential aggressive selling spree that might have trickle-down effects on a lot of other coins, especially those that have tight correlation with their ETH pair, are ERC-20 tokens, or have been sitting on ETH treasuries to fund their development. A lot more downside risk due to a selloff is also a very real possibility for ETH and other coins simply due to bad timing (i.e. bear market – with recession slowly creeping into our daily lives due to central banks raising interest rates, supply chain issues, energy crises etc.), the unlocked ETH might serve as a critical lifeline for those who had confidently staked their ETH during the bull market.

    During the bear market, investments will be scarce, and projects that during the bull market had made the decision to not convert their treasury ETH to stablecoins are now seeing their wallets drop in value significantly, forcing them to capitulate by selling at low prices to cover their expenses.

    However, it is important to note that the ETH unlocked from the ETH staked on the Beacon chain will not be immediately available right after The Merge. Rather, this feature – EIP-4895: “Beacon chain push withdrawals as operations”, will be enabled during the Shanghai upgrade. It will probably be deployed much later after The Merge, with estimates ranging from a month to 6 months. This means that any amount of potential sell-off of unlocked ETH would come with a significant delay post-Merge, at which point it’s impossible to predict where the market might be in 6-12 months and how it will behave, with contradicting bullish and bearish narratives clashing against one another in an attempt to drive price in either direction.

    This option does seem a bit far-fetched, however, and no one knows how much more pain we will have to suffer before the momentum shifts towards the upside, so it’s best to be prepared for both the upside and downside, and not fall prey to only bullish narratives.

    Conclusion

    As outlined in the two main points, post-Merge many alt-L1 coins could face a risk of crashing even further due to risks associated with reduced liquidity in a bear market (for non-Ethereum coins), liquidity that might flow towards the Ethereum ecosystem due to its established security, track record, and newly acquired environmental sustainability.

    On the other hand, ETH and other ERC-20 tokens living on Ethereum also run a risk of crashing, if the post-Merge ETH unlock from the Beacon chain results in a mass sell-off of ETH, which could crash other coins and project treasuries.

    As this will be the first time the crypto industry experiences a recession or a stagflation, there is a lot of uncertainty about how low the market could go and, most importantly, how long it could stay so low. This is uncharted territory, so making comparisons with past cycles might not be particularly useful. Nations and companies will keep tightening their belts, and spending will significantly decrease across the board, leaving risk-on markets such as crypto vulnerable to a continued mass exodus to safer investments.

  • Crypto BEAR MARKET NOW (2022) VS 2018: Similarities & Differences

    Crypto BEAR MARKET NOW (2022) VS 2018: Similarities & Differences

    The crypto market, together with stock markets and the global economy in general, have been experiencing a significant drawdown for the past 6 months, leading to a confluence of factors ranging from high inflation, rate hikes, supply chain issues, energy crisis, to geopolitical instability. This combination packs a powerful punch for any risk-on markets, such as stocks and crypto, forcing retail and institutional investors to exit their capital from markets during these uncertain times.

    With Bitcoin currently at $20k, down 70% from its $69k ATH, and the total altcoin marketcap being down 72% from its ATH, it is hard to deny that we’ve entered a bear market. But one question remains – is this anything like the bear market of 2018 and will it last equally as long as the previous one? Let’s dissect the situation and understand if this time is truly different, or if this is just a small bump in the road before an accelerated bull market.

    Check out our video comparing the crypto bear market now (2022) and in 2018- and more importantly, how to STILL make money during this downturn:

    2018 Bear Market

    2017 saw the first true mass influx of retail interest into the crypto space. Bitcoin saw a rapid increase in price, everyone’s friend and grandma were kickstarting their own ICOs to attract funds, and regular companies added the blockchain keyword to their names to increase their share prices. 2017 was the wild west, as there was even less regulation than currently, and the space was rife with opportunists spawning scam projects to extract money from ignorant first-time crypto investors.

    But, as with any bubble, it eventually pops. The crypto space was heavily overheated, with investors throwing money at everything that moved, doing minimal to no due diligence, just to get on the crypto hype train. Come 2018, things were starting to cool down and people were beginning to feel the pain. In less than 6 months after the peak ICO craze, over 90% of all the projects were already dead, with many more to go down with them in the rest of the 18-month long bear market.

    At the peak of the market, a lot of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) was beginning to circulate. Fear of regulation due to the prevalence of scams, and with China/Korea considering banning cryptocurrencies, things were not looking great for the crypto space. Right around the peak of the market, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched their Bitcoin futures product, which allowed institutional investors to get their hands dirty with Bitcoin. And, naturally, they did just that. With all of the FUD circulating and the market waiting to release a lot of pressure, institutions began shorting the market, creating an enormous sell pressure that brought BTC down to $7k, which kept grinding down to $3k till mid-2019.

    2022 Bear Market

    After Covid-19 hit, the market experienced a tiny two-month recession. As everyone was locked inside, demand dropped and supply shrunk as well. But once central banks began printing more money to help businesses and people via stimulus checks, many found themselves with a lot of extra cash and no way to spend it, so they turned to investing. After the March crash, the rest of 2020 saw the crypto market boom, calling it the “DeFi summer”, with BTC increasing in price by 400% by the end of the year. After that, it just kept on going. 2021 was the year of the NFTs and Metaverse, i.e. GameFi, with numerous projects sprouting up to capture some of the value amid all the hype.

    After reaching its peak in November 2021, the crypto market has kept on steadily grinding down. Those who had called the peak in November aptly understood that the markets were overheated, inflation was starting to get out of hand, and the only way for governments to keep that under control was to begin quantitative tightening through rate hikes. Unfortunately, many were still in denial about the onset of the bear market way into April, which has resulted in a lot of people holding bags that might or might not recover.

    Now the path forward seems clear. The US Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy is causing markets a lot of necessary and unavoidable pain. Because the money printing since Covid-19 has been at such an unprecedented level, the Fed is finding it hard to slow down the inflation without causing a lot of damage. The result currently is a looming recession at the same time as inflation is still running rampant and driving up the prices of everything, all the while people’s incomes are stagnating and their expenses increasing.

    When is the Next Bull Cycle?

    At the moment, there are no clear signs of central banks reeling in their hawkish monetary policies. It might possibly take at least several months if not until the end of the year for the dust to settle, the bottom to come in, and for us to be ready for the next bull cycle once the Fed eases monetary restrictions. Continued geopolitical turbulence aside, the next bull cycle will certainly come, but it’s difficult to say what will be the narratives driving the rapid market expansion this time.

    The two most touted bull market catalysts are the long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETF and the Ethereum Merge, which will cause the Ethereum network to transition from its wasteful Proof-of-Work mechanism to Proof-of-Stake. However, as is common in life and in markets, the most obvious things tend not to be the ones to catalyze huge changes. Markets are irrational, and a confluence of new narratives that will be born only in 6 months might very well end up triggering the next bull run.

    How to Still Make Money During the Crypto Bear Market?

    With great pain come great opportunities, and this bear market is no exception. This is the time for learning, accumulating, and paying attention to the market. In our latest video about the current bear market, we outline a few strategies that you can use as an investor to maximize upside potential come next bull run:

    1) Dollar cost averaging (DCA) into your investments – instead of trying to catch the generational bottom and investing your whole capital in one go, better invest 20% of your capital at a time during a longer time period, so that way you are more likely to get a great average entry price and reap the profits in the future.

    2) Doing lots of research – fundamental analysis of projects is the best way to ensure you invest in projects that have a real potential, and this is the time to be doing just that. Many projects will die during this bear market, so it’s important to source trustworthy information and be critical of everything in order to position yourself properly during the next stage of growth.

    3) Diversify your portfolio – as we’ve seen in the past months, there’s no such thing as too big to fail in the crypto space. Instead of going all-in on one project, spreading risk across several projects will ensure your capital is better protected from a few bad investments.

     4) Shorting the market – this should not be practiced by anyone who doesn’t have experience trading, as without proper risk management things can get pretty ugly very fast. During a downtrend, a way to make money is by shorting an asset, which essentially means you’re betting on an asset to go down in value.

    Of course, none of this is financial advice, and we implore our readers to do their own research and never invest more than they are willing to lose. It’s a highly volatile market and not for the faint of heart.